Gold is racing towards new highs – the precious metals market is entering an upward phase driven by geopolitical instability and changes in monetary policy.

Gold price forecasts for the coming years indicate significant potential for appreciation of this traditional safe haven asset. Prestigious financial institutions estimate that by 2026, gold prices could reach historic highs, with Morgan Stanley forecasting $4,800 per ounce, and JP Morgan even predicting $5,000 per ounce within the same timeframe, and potentially $6,000 in the longer term.

Growth Drivers – from Fed policy to central bank purchases

A Morgan Stanley spokesperson explains that the scenario of further price increases for this precious metal is supported by the convergence of macroeconomic and geopolitical factors. Key among these are expectations regarding the Federal Reserve’s interest rate reduction cycle, which directly increases the attractiveness of non-yielding assets. Simultaneously, central banks are significantly increasing their gold holdings, diversifying their reserve portfolios.

The year 2025 saw spectacular growth – spot gold prices surpassed a 64 percent appreciation, marking the strongest annual result since 1979. Amy Gower, a commodities strategist at Morgan Stanley, emphasizes that investors see this metal not only as a hedge against inflation but also as an indicator of the overall health of the financial system – from central bank orientation to the scale of international threats.

Geostrategy drives demand for safe assets

Recent turbulence on the international stage, including the situation in Venezuela, has once again highlighted the importance of this precious metal as a store of value amid uncertainty. Trader Alexander Zumpfe from German Heraeus points out that such incidents open new upward phases by mobilizing capital seeking safe havens.

JP Morgan strategist Natasha Kaneva notes that although price growth is not linear, the fundamental trends driving the overvaluation of this metal remain strong. Rising trade tensions and ongoing geopolitical tensions result in both institutional and private investor portfolios turning toward gold.

Dollar weakens – gold strengthens

The US dollar lost about 9% of its strength in 2025, recording the worst result since 2017. This erosion of the dollar’s position automatically enhances gold’s competitiveness for foreign currency holders. Capital flows into physically-backed gold ETFs reached record levels, indicating increasing engagement from both professional entities and retail investors.

For the first time since 1996, gold’s share in global central bank reserves surpassed the weight of US Treasury bonds – a sign confirming a shift in financial institutions’ preferences.

Metal ecosystem – silver and copper prices on the rise

Although gold remains the ace nominated by Morgan Stanley, the entire precious metals sector is entering a favorable cycle. Silver experienced a 147 percent increase in 2025 – the best annual result in history. Support comes from growing industrial demand for solar panels and battery technologies, alongside supply-side tensions. Flows into silver ETFs remain robust.

In the base metals segment, attention is drawn to aluminum and copper. Copper prices on the LME reached a new weekly high – three-month contracts were valued at $13,387.50 per ton. Morgan Stanley notes that persistent supply shortages in the copper sector, especially due to disruptions in mine deliveries and rising US imports, keep the market tense.

Aluminum also shows growth prospects, as supply remains tight outside Indonesia, and signals of returning US buyers are driving prices. Nickel again demonstrates volatility, with risks related to potential supply disruptions from Indonesia supporting its prices, although Morgan Stanley warns that much of these risks may already be priced in.

ING analysts confirm that the outlook for 2026 for the entire metals sector remains clearly positive, supported by continued easing policies by the Fed and sustained interest in safe assets.