Is the super cycle still ongoing or is the bear market beginning?

What is the story behind Bitcoin’s 4-year cycle?

From the 1950s to 2025, what can over 70 years of financial history tell us? It seems like a broad span, but a closer look reveals that the market’s operating logic isn’t that complicated.

Bitcoin’s 4-year cycle is essentially a collision between the halving mechanism and market psychology. Every four years, miners’ rewards are cut in half, which not only affects supply but also breaks market expectations. Historical data shows that within 18 months before and after halving, there are usually sharp price fluctuations—sometimes soaring, sometimes crashing.

The key question is: Are we currently in a super cycle, or are we entering a new bear market?

Look at the macro background. Global liquidity conditions are changing, and the Federal Reserve’s policy stance is shifting. These external variables, combined with Bitcoin’s internal cycle, create a layered effect. Historical experience indicates that when macro cycles and Bitcoin cycles move in the same direction, gains are exaggerated; when they move in opposite directions, it often signals the start of a correction.

What really needs attention is: the attitude of institutional funds. If large capital continues to flow in, the probability of the super cycle extending is high; if the flow slows down or even withdraws, then be prepared for a correction.

The conclusion is hard to pin down definitively, but one thing is certain: this cycle will teach market participants a lesson, just like every turning point in the 70-year financial history.