Since the beginning of 2025, the US trade deficit has been like a roller coaster—sometimes sharply narrowing, sometimes suddenly soaring. The cumulative deficit in the first three quarters has already surpassed $760 billion, with a year-on-year increase of over 17%, indicating that the fundamental issues of import-export imbalance still persist.

Data fluctuations are unusually intense. In August, the monthly deficit dropped to $59.6 billion, mainly due to shrinking imports and steady exports; but in March and July, the figures soared to $140.5 billion and $103.6 billion respectively, nearing historical extremes. This sharp volatility reflects deep instability in the US trade pattern.

From a regional perspective, the top four deficits are still with Mexico, China, Vietnam, and the European Union. The deficit with China shrank by about 25% in the first three quarters, and even fell by 51% in September— but the truth behind this number is much more complex. Supply chain restructuring, rising import costs, and companies reducing orders are the main drivers, not fundamental improvements in the trade pattern.

Why does the deficit remain high? The root lies in the economic structure. US residents have strong consumption, low savings rates, and domestic capacity is insufficient, forcing reliance on imports to fill the gap. Meanwhile, a strong dollar suppresses the international competitiveness of US goods, making export expansion even more difficult.

The key is that tariff policies have not been effective. Multiple rounds of tariffs this year have instead driven up the deficit due to companies stockpiling in advance and supply chain chaos. The government has subsequently had to exempt tariffs on many goods, and frequent policy reversals prevent companies from anchoring their medium- and long-term business strategies.

Looking ahead, this dilemma is unlikely to see breakthroughs in the short term.