2026-01-10 06:24:36

The Fed's actions are indeed interesting — on one hand signaling a 150 basis point rate cut, and on the other insisting that the US economy remains strong. Logically, this doesn't quite add up.

If the economy were truly so resilient, why rush to cut rates aggressively? This is usually a move used when the economy is under pressure. The data makes it clear: ADP employment figures have already started to soften, and if non-farm payrolls also confirm a slowdown, a rate cut in the first half of the year will be almost certain.

The divergence in expectations could very well be the next market turning point. When rate cut expectations heat up alongside signals of a "soft landing" for the economy, a shift in liquidity is not far off. Global assets are entering a re-pricing cycle, and the volatility in US stocks may just be beginning. The performance of risk assets like BTC and ETH warrants close attention.

Rather than getting caught up in the Fed's rhetoric, it's better to focus on the real signals: rising rate cut expectations + cooling economic indicators = is this a risk or an opportunity? What are your thoughts?

BTC-0,19%

ETH-0,11%

View Original

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.

14 Likes

Reward
14
8
Repost
Share

Comment

0/400

PrivateKeyParanoia

· 8h ago

The Fed's recent actions are truly "hard on the mouth but soft at heart," claiming the economy is strong just to pave the way for rate cuts. BTC and ETH should be closely watched now; the real game begins when liquidity shifts. Basically, it's a bet on a soft landing for the economy. If it succeeds, everyone’s happy; if not... heh heh. Non-farm payroll data is crucial right now, but it's not the time to place bets yet. The rate cut expectations have already been overhyped; actually, being bearish might present an opportunity.

View OriginalReply0

On-ChainDiver

· 16h ago

The Fed's rhetoric is indeed clever; they claim the economy is strong but have already started cutting interest rates, isn't that obvious? Once liquidity shifts to BTC and ETH, they should take off. This wave is definitely worth jumping on. When economic data softens, interest rate cuts are a sure thing. The real test will come when asset re-pricing occurs. Instead of listening to their hype, it's better to watch the ADP and non-farm payroll reports, those are the real signals. Honestly, the market is now betting on rate cut expectations, and the risks and opportunities lie within this expectation gap.

View OriginalReply0

NFTBlackHole

· 16h ago

I really can't believe the Fed's rhetoric. They say the economy is strong and then hint at rate cuts—aren't they just testing the market reaction? If this rate-cut cycle begins, BTC is destined to take off. Buying at the bottom now won't be a loss. Once the non-farm payroll data slows down, it's time to get in. Don't wait until liquidity truly shifts and then regret it. Basically, it's a bet that the Federal Reserve will back down. Currently, the probability seems quite high. A soft landing for the economy sounds good, but the data is right there—it's hard to deceive.

View OriginalReply0

DegenWhisperer

· 16h ago

The Federal Reserve's logic, while sounding good, everyone can read between the lines. With such a disappointing interest rate cut expectation, BTC should be taking off now, right?

View OriginalReply0

DAOplomacy

· 16h ago

ngl the fed's messaging here is giving "we're fine, trust us" while simultaneously nuking rates lol... like pick a lane already? 🤔

Reply0

tokenomics_truther

· 16h ago

The Fed's rhetoric is really impressive; they claim the economy is strong, but all their signals of rate cuts are the opposite... At times like this, it's all about watching the data, not just the words. Once the rate cut cycle starts, liquidity will inevitably shift. The key is whether you can catch the bottom—that's the real challenge. A cooling economy combined with expectations of rate cuts might actually be the true starting point for crypto assets. To put it simply, the Federal Reserve just wants you to believe the economy is fine, but their 150 basis point rate cut plan has long betrayed their true intentions. The slowdown in ADP data is actually quite painful; if non-farm payrolls also confirm this trend, there will be no way to avoid rate cuts in the first half of the year. Instead of guessing what the Fed will do next, it's better to position early and wait for the moment liquidity arrives. Expectations gap—this thing will eventually be taught a lesson by the market.

View OriginalReply0

SandwichDetector

· 16h ago

Powell's recent moves are indeed awkward; he claims the economy is stable but is actually considering rate cuts. Who would believe that? As expectations for rate cuts heat up, I recall how aggressive the liquidity shift was last time, and BTC's surge back then was incredible. With ADP data trending this way, non-farm payrolls can't be far behind. Will rate cuts be too far off? Honestly, the Federal Reserve's rhetoric is becoming increasingly unsustainable. Instead of trusting their words, it's better to watch the market's real reactions. A cooling economy + expectations of rate cuts—this combination I like. Risk assets should start rotating now. The Fed plays psychological warfare—stabilizing expectations on one hand while hinting at a shift on the other. The market's response is the real indicator. This time, the expectations gap is indeed large. I feel there will be big moves in the second half of the year. I'm holding and observing.

View OriginalReply0

OldLeekConfession

· 16h ago

The Fed's rhetoric is indeed impressive; they claim the economy is good, but at the same time they want to cut interest rates, which is a bit contradictory. The expectation of rate cuts, I think, is more valuable than the Fed's official statements; the real signals are in the data. When liquidity shifts, BTC and ETH might actually be the true barometers, much more sensitive than the stock market. Instead of listening to the Fed's act, it's better to focus on rate cut expectations and employment data. When these two collide, that's where the opportunity lies. Is the economy really solid? The data will tell, but honestly, I can't see it.

View OriginalReply0