Tonight at 21:30, the U.S. Department of Labor will release the December 2025 Non-Farm Employment Report. Many people's expectations are relatively stable: employment is still growing but at a slower pace, and the unemployment rate is expected to drop from 4.6% to 4.5%. Many traders view this report as "the first standardized data after the government shutdown," hoping it can finally clear out the noise from earlier.

However, things are not that simple. The statistical distortions caused by the shutdown cannot be corrected in the short term, and seasonal employment at the end of the year introduces new dislocations. This data contains both "real trends" and "temporary fluctuations"—two sets of signals mixed together. The numbers are in front of us, but the direction remains quite blurry.

From leading indicators, employment vitality is still present but not strong. ADP data shows that private sector employment increased by about 41,000 in December; after a prolonged downturn, the Service PMI returned to expansion territory for the first time in seven months, indicating a warming in hiring demand. Job openings fell from 7.4 million in November to 7.1 million at present, which initially suggests demand is cooling. However, during the same period, the number of resignations increased while layoffs decreased, indicating that the labor market still has resilience—both releasing and absorbing workers, presenting a delicate balance.

The most challenging part is the divergence in forecasts. Market guesses for the number of new non-farm jobs vary widely, from as low as 25,000 to as high as 155,000. Reuters' consensus estimate is around 60,000, while The Wall Street Journal's data is slightly more optimistic at about 73,000. There are also more aggressive forecasts out there.