2025-12-30 14:21:28

On the evening of December 30th, traders worldwide are waiting for one piece of data. The Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), known as the "barometer" of the US economy, is about to be announced, and this year-end report will influence the rhythm of global financial markets.

Let's look at expectations first. The market generally anticipates that December's PMI will rebound from 36.3 in November to 39.8. It sounds like a recovery, but don't get too excited—both numbers are below the 50 expansion-contraction threshold, indicating that manufacturing is still contracting. However, the pace of contraction might not be as severe this time.

2025 is unlikely to be friendly to US manufacturing. The average PMI for the year is forecasted to be only 48.5, mostly below 50, with November dropping to a low of 36.3. This situation has already caused market concerns about a potential recession.

The Chicago PMI is important not only because it covers manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors in the region but also because it has a high correlation of up to 60% with the overall US economic trend. Sub-indicators such as new orders, production, employment, and inventories directly reflect the true vitality of the US industrial economy. In other words, this data is a weather vane for the economy.

There are two possible outcomes tonight. If the data meets or even exceeds expectations, a mild rebound signal could ease market fears of a recession, helping the year-end financial markets stabilize. Conversely, if the data continues to decline, volatility might spread to global financial markets, adding uncertainty to the start of 2026.

For the crypto market, macroeconomic fluctuations often trigger chain reactions. The good or bad news from US economic data will ultimately influence risk asset valuation expectations. Therefore, the PMI data tonight is worth paying close attention to.

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SolidityJester

· 4h ago

36.3 to 39.8? The rebound range is really hard to gauge, feels like we're still crawling on the floor. If manufacturing continues to drag down, our crypto circle will have to tremble again. With PMI below 50 for so long, is a recession really coming? The US economy is a bit shaky. When the data comes out tonight, we’ll see if there’s another round of sharp decline; everyone in the crypto circle will be holding their hearts. Below 50 for such a long time, it seems 2025 might not be so bright.

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ColdWalletGuardian

· 4h ago

36 to 39, still below 50. How "not that bad" can this contraction speed be? --- Here we go again, always talking about economic data, but in the end, it's just big institutions harvesting retail investors. --- The shadow of recession is so thick, no wonder crypto prices have been so tough lately. --- Chicago PMI influences global financial markets. To put it simply, when the US stock market moves, we have to follow and tremble—life is out of our control. --- 2025 PMI average of 48.5? Then what's the point of talking about recovery? Just prepare to gather dust. --- A 60% correlation sounds impressive, but can this data really predict crypto trends? I doubt it. --- Details like new orders and employment have long reflected problems; everyone is just fooling themselves. --- If the market remains sluggish tonight, major exchanges will face another wave of liquidations. Hold on, everyone. --- Manufacturing contraction and devaluation of risk assets—I understand this logical chain, but my wallet is crying. --- Adding variables at the start of 2026? Isn't there enough uncertainty already? Haha.

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ApeDegen

· 4h ago

36.3 to 39.8, still below the hell line. What's the use of this rebound? --- It's both macro and recession, forget it, I'll just see how BTC moves. --- Chicago PMI, can it really predict 60% of the US? Feels a bit bullshit. --- Manufacturing contraction, the crypto market has to suffer along, I really don't want to accept this logic. --- If this data of 39.8 comes out and it still falls, the end of the year will be lively. --- Instead of waiting for PMI, it's better to see how the Federal Reserve will act, that's the decisive factor. --- The recession expectations have already been reflected in the crypto circle, nothing new. --- Risk assets are being devalued, those of us holding coins have taken quite a few hits. --- 2025 PMI average of 48.5? The US manufacturing sector is really a bit sick.

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gaslight_gasfeez

· 4h ago

36.3 to 39.8, this rebound looks healing, but it's still a bear market. Wake up, everyone. PMI has fallen so much, indicating that the US manufacturing sector is really struggling. 2025 won't be easy, and our crypto circle needs to be prepared. Now we have to look at US data again, so annoying. The market will probably experience another wave of volatility tomorrow. Can we stop using PMI to scare us? Just let it fall if it needs to. The real concern is whether it will affect BTC prices. Below 50 is a sign of recession. I bet tonight's PMI will continue to decline. Short sellers, get ready to jump in. The US economy sneezes, and the crypto market catches a cold. I really can't stand this kind of correlation. No matter what, these data points won't look good. Instead of waiting for the results, it's better to step in now—safety first.

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