2025-12-30 12:29:44

A new round of BTC accumulation by a leading publicly listed company appears to be an active move, but in reality, it’s a trapped dilemma.

A comparison chart can clarify the full picture—on the left is the holding trajectory, on the right is the valuation truth. Together, these two charts form this company's life and death ledger.

The curve on the left shows an increase from 20,000 BTC in 2020 to over 670,000 now. The growth rate over these five years is tolerable, but what about from 2024 to 2025? The curve nearly verticals. The Seiler team is frantically sweeping up assets, leveraging more while buying, targeting Bitcoin’s scarcity post-halving, and fully deploying capital to secure a position.

Switching to the right chart hits hard. The market value of the BTC holdings alone reaches $58.7 billion, while the company's total market cap is only $63.1 billion. You heard right—the company's valuation is almost entirely based on Bitcoin. The once-promoted image of a tech company with a 2 to 3 times premium is completely broken. Now, its valuation multiple (mNAV) is only 1.07x. What does the market see it as? Just a Bitcoin shadow fund carrying debt risk.

This is the root of the problem: the company has transformed into a standard "fiat devaluation hedge machine." It can’t stop—must continuously issue debt to borrow USD, using the borrowed funds to buy more BTC, maintaining the growth of per-share Bitcoin holdings.

If it stops, debt interest and equity dilution will immediately erode this meager premium, causing the stock price to plummet. Even more severe, if the mNAV drops below 1.0, Bitcoin’s price could be caught in a vicious cycle, and this critical point is exactly at $75,000—coinciding with the current cost basis of the holdings.

BTC1,03%

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MevWhisperer

· 8h ago

Wait, 58.7 billion Bitcoins, 63.1 billion in market value? Isn't this just a BTC fund in disguise, the kind with leverage? An unstoppable game—once BTC drops below 75k, it's game over.

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GateUser-44a00d6c

· 9h ago

Oh my, this is a BTC ATM, I can't stop feeling this way... --- 670,000 coins? Brother Selle is really gambling with his life --- It's broken haha, from a tech company to a shadow fund, no one can turn around like this --- 1.07x premium? Might as well just buy coins directly, this company is purely a debt risk carrier --- The $75,000 line can't hold up, once it's broken... --- Issuing bonds to buy coins, issuing bonds to buy coins, this is a dead cycle, how to get off? --- A market cap of 63.1 billion is hostage to Bitcoin, that really hits home --- If you can't stop, you have to keep leveraging, the risk is outrageously high --- Is this the modern version of Ponzi? Using new debt to pay old debt --- mNAV falling below 1.0 is really the end, this current position is too dangerous

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GasWaster

· 9h ago

What are you selling? This guy is already riding the tiger and can't stop, he can't put it down. It's betting that BTC won't fall below 75,000. Once it crashes, the entire game falls apart. To put it simply, it's a death spiral of leverage, issuing bonds to buy coins, buying bonds, buying coins... so intense. 1.07x premium? This is just a Bitcoin ATM, it has no technological attributes left. The only problem is that he's all in, and there's no way back now.

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PerpetualLonger

· 9h ago

Buying the dip has backfired on me, this is what you call faith.

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