On-chain data reveals the true distribution of ETH holdings. Currently, 17.9 million ETH are concentrated within the narrow range of $2700-$3100, accounting for 22.6% of the total circulating supply, with a density comparable to peak market times.

$2700 is an absolute critical level. Here, 4.43 million ETH have changed hands, making it the most densely packed fortress of chips within the entire price range. Once broken below, the psychological defense line will collapse instantly, and the risks below become hard to estimate.

Above, there is a group of long-term trapped positions. Investors who entered around $4500 in September have yet to cut losses, and their potential selling pressure to unwind positions is enormous. When the price approaches their cost basis, selling pressure could avalanche.

It is worth noting that smart money has already taken action. Data from late November shows that funds are quietly positioning in the $2700-$2800 range and have not moved yet, indicating that large investors are optimistic about the support value of this price zone.

The current market situation is like a tightly stretched rubber band. Below $2700 is the survival bottom line for bears, while above $3100 is a minefield for bulls—each upward move must contend with the selling pressure of long-term trapped positions. The highest probability in the short term is for range-bound oscillation.

Operational advice: It is reasonable to be moderately bullish above $2700, but be cautious near $3100; if it falls below $2700, strategies should be adjusted immediately. Remember, densely packed chip zones are always the most dangerous battlegrounds for bulls and bears. Following the footprints of big funds and responding flexibly at key points is the survival rule for retail investors.