Recently, a chart has attracted a lot of attention in the market, reflecting the true state of the current crypto market—the appearance of prosperity masks underlying turbulence.

Let's first look at the hardcore data from the news side. Ethereum's contract trading volume this year has hit a record high, reaching nearly twice the scale of 2024. This growth itself is not surprising, but what is truly alarming is this number: the spot-to-futures ratio is about 0.2.

In other words—every 1 dollar of real money spent on buying coins is backed by 5 dollars in the contract market for leverage speculation. This is not an exaggeration but a fact laid out plainly. The direct result is that the price-setting power is no longer in the hands of long-term holders but is hijacked by massive leverage orders and liquidations. Price increases are exaggerated, and declines are amplified, which is why even reaching new highs still feels somewhat fragile.

Now, looking at the technical side. On the 4-hour chart, the apparent trend points upward, but the details reveal everything. The price is stuck at 2924, unable to hold even the key resistance at 2940. More painfully, the MACD—white and yellow lines—are still oscillating below the zero line. What does this signal? Clearly, upward momentum is oxygen-deprived; the rebound is just a fleeting reflection, not a sign of genuine strength.

Positioning is also very clear: above 3000 is a heavily pressured zone, with 2940 as the focal point of contention. Looking downward, 2880 is the first support level. These levels are not arbitrary but are the traces left after repeated testing by the market. The current issue is that, in such a leveraged environment, any small fluctuation in technicals could trigger a chain reaction.

Therefore, the current price movement is more a game of leverage ratios than a reflection of fundamentals. The upward momentum lacks confidence, and the risk of decline is also accumulating.