BTC Trend Evolution Analysis

From the current trend, Bitcoin is below the key trendline and overall weak. This period of "sideways movement + drawing gates" essentially means that in an environment of liquidity exhaustion, the market is exchanging chips.

The four-hour timeframe has already broken below the upward channel and entered a new "inside bar" structure. From a purely technical perspective, there are two core evolution logic:

The first is the standard divergence pattern. Entry phase → Central oscillation → Breakaway phase → Secondary central zone → Divergence phase. This is the typical path of four-hour divergence in the central zone. If a double bottom divergence resonance occurs on both the daily and four-hour levels, it could potentially form a relatively explosive weekly rebound. The core logic is simple: the bearish momentum is exhausted, and the final dip is completed.

The second is the bottoming process. Continuous sideways movement and drawing gates aim to exhaust the pressure of the trendline. However, the risk of this approach is that it may not be a true reversal but rather an upgrade of the structure. Since there has been no deep washout, the upward space is easily constrained by dense selling pressure above. This can easily evolve into "space for time," leading to a secondary bottom test. Therefore, the key is to monitor whether the pressure levels are effectively suppressed to prevent false breakouts.

Practical trading advice is as follows: Lock in the window period from January to February 2026. The current strategy is to wait for the establishment of a bottom divergence at the same level. In one sentence: the market makers are "grinding," and we are just "waiting." Wait for the structure to complete and for the double divergence resonance signal to appear, then plan for a weekly-level rebound.