#数字资产市场动态 $BTC $SUI $AT

Japan's Fiscal Policy Makes Its First Major Shift in 28 Years: From Persistent Deficit to Budget Surplus
Japanese Finance Minister Sanae Takaichi recently sent a signal—Japan may achieve its first primary budget surplus in 28 years next year. This news is enough to shake the markets: an economy that has relied on debt issuance and loose monetary policy to sustain growth suddenly announces a tightening of the purse strings.
Two hidden messages are worth noting:
**Policy Signal Reversal**
From "debt cycle" to surplus targets, if truly implemented, the yen will face upward pressure. This means the global assessment of Japan's fiscal sustainability will change dramatically, and such re-evaluation often comes with sharp exchange rate fluctuations and capital flow adjustments.
**Inflation Data Softening**
Tokyo's December CPI dropped to 2.0%, giving the Bank of Japan room to adjust its policy. However, the yen remains relatively weak in international markets, reflecting that the market is still waiting for clearer policy signals.
**Repricing of Cryptocurrencies and Safe-Haven Assets**
The yen's weakness has not reversed, and funds continue to flow into traditional safe-haven assets like gold and Bitcoin, as well as assets within the Ethereum ecosystem that have low Gas fees and high volatility. These low-liquidity assets attract aggressive traders but also amplify risks.
**Variables in the Global Macro Environment**
U.S. policy shifts will directly influence all of this. Strong growth targets combined with trade protectionism tendencies will reconfigure global capital flows. Japan's fiscal tightening this time is not only driven by internal needs but also a response to external pressures.
**Key Questions**
A long-term deficit economy suddenly hitting the brakes faces the fog of declining inflation ahead and the variable of major power policies on the side—whether this braking force is enough remains to be seen. The market is still waiting for answers. If your asset allocation includes yen exposure or Japan-related assets, now is the time to review your risk exposure.