Three Drivers Behind Rocket Lab's 30% Weekly Surge: What Investors Should Know

The Rally That Caught Many Off Guard

In a significant move this week, Rocket Lab (NASDAQ: RKLB) shares experienced a striking 30% increase, closing at $63.44 as of December 12th, 2025. According to [S&P Global Market Intelligence](, this remarkable performance was fueled by multiple catalysts converging in the commercial spaceflight sector, reshaping investor sentiment around the emerging space economy.

Three Key Catalysts Driving the Momentum

The $1.5 Trillion SpaceX IPO Narrative

The primary catalyst appears to be renewed optimism surrounding SpaceX’s potential entry into public markets. Reports indicate the aerospace giant may pursue an initial public offering next year with an extraordinary $1.5 trillion valuation, planning to raise approximately $30 billion. While SpaceX operates independently from Rocket Lab, institutional investors frequently view them within the same investment thesis. When sentiment around SpaceX strengthens, capital typically flows to smaller players in the commercial launch sector like Rocket Lab, creating a rising tide effect across the space economy investments.

Progress on Next-Generation Launch Capability

Beyond market sentiment, Rocket Lab announced meaningful development milestones for its Neutron rocket program. The company demonstrated advances with the “Hungry Hippo” rocket fairing component, an essential element for the larger vehicle undergoing active testing. Management guidance suggests the Neutron should achieve full operational capability and commence commercial missions sometime in 2026, representing a transformative moment for the company’s revenue potential.

Fundamental Business Momentum

The underlying business shows genuine strength entering this period. Recent quarterly results demonstrated revenue expansion of 48% on a year-over-year basis, reaching $155 million. This growth trajectory provides credibility to the market’s optimism about Rocket Lab’s positioning within the accelerating space economy sector.

The Valuation Reality Check

While shareholders have enjoyed substantial returns—the stock has appreciated more than 10x since early 2024 when prices hovered below $5—current valuations demand scrutiny. With a market capitalization of $34 billion and revenue of $155 million, the company trades at a price-to-sales ratio exceeding 50. By conventional metrics, this pricing appears stretched, suggesting the market is pricing in considerable future growth that may take years to materialize. Investors should weigh this premium valuation against the genuine operational progress before adding positions at current levels.

The Path Forward

Rocket Lab faces a pivotal moment. The company possesses genuine technological advancement and a credible path to significant revenue expansion. However, current market pricing leaves minimal room for disappointment. The convergence of SpaceX IPO anticipation, Neutron development progress, and strong recent revenue growth has created the perfect environment for this week’s 30% appreciation. Whether the stock can sustain these elevated valuations depends heavily on flawless execution in 2026 when Neutron reaches commercial service.