Multicoin Capital bets against the trend! Buys 30 million worth of WLD without fear of regulatory storms

Worldcoin (WLD) monthly down 21%, search volume plummeted from a peak of 100 to 6, and Thailand has ordered the deletion of biometric data collected from over one million users. While the market is bearish, Multicoin Capital has invested 30 million USDC to acquire 60 million WLD tokens. Lookonchain tracked this OTC transaction—why is this top crypto fund increasing its holdings against the tide when retail investors are fleeing?

Decoding Multicoin Capital’s Investment Logic

Founded in 2017, Multicoin Capital is one of the most influential investment firms in the crypto space, known for its “research-driven investing,” which emphasizes deep research and long-term investment philosophy rather than chasing short-term hot trends. The fund has successfully invested in projects like Solana, Helium, The Graph, among others. Its investment logic typically focuses on projects with disruptive technology and long-term infrastructure value.

This OTC deal of 60 million WLD tokens was not a public market purchase but directly negotiated with the Worldcoin team. Such operations usually imply: greater bargaining power, possibly acquiring tokens at a discount below market price; lock-up terms indicating long-term holding intentions; and strategic partnerships, as direct deals often involve deeper strategic collaboration.

Multicoin may see several overlooked key points. First, the strategic value of biometric identity verification technology in the AI era. As deepfakes and identity fraud become more severe, systems that can prove “you are human” will become exponentially more valuable. Second, regulatory pressure might be short-term noise rather than a long-term obstacle. Historically, many disruptive technologies have gone through regulatory pain points and eventually entered the mainstream through compliance adjustments. Third, the current valuation may already reflect pessimistic expectations. With a 21% monthly decline, 94% drop in search volume, and stagnant user growth, these negative factors might already be priced in, and any positive catalyst could trigger a sharp rebound.

Strategic Intent Revealed by OTC Details

Blockchain analytics firm Lookonchain’s detailed tracking of the transaction warrants careful analysis. The Multicoin-related address first transferred 30 million USDC to the Worldcoin team, then received 60 million WLD tokens, implying a transaction price of about $0.50. This price is close to the current market price of $0.49614, indicating Multicoin did not get a significant discount but was willing to buy large amounts at market price.

This pricing strategy signals: Multicoin believes the current price is undervalued and does not need to wait for lower prices or demand additional discounts. The OTC deal of 60 million tokens is substantial; buying on the open market could cause slippage and market panic. Directly transacting with the team avoids market impact and fosters closer strategic relationships.

Additionally, the inflow of 30 million USDC provides important funding support for Worldcoin, especially during a period of regulatory pressure and slowing user growth. This capital can be used for legal compliance, technical upgrades, and market expansion, helping the project weather the winter. From this perspective, it’s not just an investment but a strategic rescue, with Multicoin potentially gaining more influence and future cooperation opportunities.

Worldcoin Regulatory Clampdown: Thailand’s Ban Is Just the Tip of the Iceberg

In late November, Thai authorities ordered Worldcoin to suspend iris recognition registration and delete biometric data collected from over one million users. This ban came after a law enforcement raid on the project’s iris scanning sites in Thailand in October. SEC Deputy Secretary Jomkwan Kongsakul stated: “This cooperation will improve law enforcement efficiency in cracking down on unlicensed digital asset businesses, protect users from legal gaps, and reduce risks of fraud and money laundering.”

Thailand is not the first. In May, Worldcoin faced regulatory hurdles in Indonesia and Kenya. Privacy concerns over biometric data collection have become the biggest obstacle to the project’s global expansion. European data protection agencies have also questioned Worldcoin’s iris scanning practices, fearing violations of GDPR. These regulatory pressures are not short-term events but structural challenges that will have long-term impacts on Worldcoin’s user growth and market confidence.

However, amid this regulatory winter, Multicoin Capital has chosen to increase its holdings. This contrarian move suggests the fund sees long-term value unpriced by the market or has a different assessment of regulatory risks.

Data Collapse: Retail Interest Vanishes While Institutions Enter

Dune Analytics data shows that since September, the number of new active wallet addresses has sharply declined. This slowdown in user growth directly reflects weak retail demand. Google Trends data is even more stark: search interest for “Worldcoin” peaked at 100 in September and has since dropped to 6, a 94% decline. The earlier surge was driven by WLD listing on Upbit, but interest cooled rapidly afterward.

Price performance has also been poor. WLD has fallen over 21% in the past month. At press time, the token trades at $0.49614, up 2.57% in the last 24 hours, but this short-term rebound is part of the broader crypto market recovery, with total market cap rising nearly 0.5%. This does not indicate a genuine revival in WLD’s demand.

Market Data Breakdown: Complete Collapse of WLD

Price Performance: Down 21% monthly, current $0.49614, well below all-time high

Search Interest: Dropped from 100 to 6, a 94% plunge

User Growth: New active wallets sharply declined since September, retail demand exhausted

Regulatory Environment: Ban in Thailand, obstacles in Indonesia and Kenya, global expansion hindered

In the face of this comprehensive data collapse, retail investors are exiting en masse, seemingly rational. Yet, Multicoin’s $30 million USDC investment indicates institutional capital is counter-cyclically accumulating. This divergence between retail and institutional behavior warrants deeper analysis.

High-Risk Bet or Value Discovery?

Multicoin’s contrarian investment can be interpreted in two very different ways. A pessimistic view sees this as a high-risk gamble: under regulatory uncertainty, user attrition, and market apathy, Worldcoin may never realize its vision, and the $30 million could be lost. An optimistic perspective views this as classic value investing: when the market is overly pessimistic, top-tier institutions often see long-term value that is undervalued. The recovery of Solana after the FTX collapse is a prime example.