ETH Hovering Near $2,950 — Is $3,000 Real Support or Just Psychological?

ETH just painted another test of market nerves. After peaking around $3,250, the world’s second-largest crypto asset rolled over hard, punching through $3,120 and scraping a low of $3,026 before finding its footing. Right now we’re hovering in the $2,950 zone — and everyone’s watching to see if this is stabilization or just a pit stop on the way down.

The real question isn’t whether ETH bounces; it’s whether the bounce has any teeth. Technically speaking, buyers did claw back some ground and managed to climb above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level from the $3,273 high. But here’s the thing: every rally keeps bumping its head against overhead resistance, and until ETH decisively clears $3,200, we’re still in “relief bounce” territory rather than genuine recovery mode.

The Setup: Where Sellers and Buyers Are Dug In

Look at the hourly structure on the market data feeds, and the picture gets clearer. ETH is still trading below $3,200 and remains capped under the 100-hour Simple Moving Average — which means the short-term trend bias is still pointed downward. Making matters trickier for the bulls, there’s a bearish trend line sitting around $3,175 that keeps slapping down every attempt to rally. This isn’t random; it’s a literal wall of sell orders where traders keep piling in to defend downside.

The resistance ladder tells the story:

• $3,150 zone catches the first bounce (also where the 50% Fibonacci retracement from the $3,273-to-$3,026 drop sits)
• $3,175–$3,180 area acts as the trend line resistance that keeps shutting things down
• $3,200 is the real line in the sand — break it cleanly and the whole narrative shifts to recovery mode

If $3,200 actually breaks with conviction, then we’re looking at upside targets opening up toward $3,250, and if momentum carries, possibly $3,320 and $3,400 in the near term. Until then, every rally is essentially renting time on borrowed credibility.

The Other Side of the Coin: What Happens If Sellers Keep Pushing?

The downside scenario is where $3,000 enters the chat as the “do-or-die” battleground. If ETH can’t hold $3,050, we’re looking at a direct march toward $3,020, then $3,000 proper. And if that psychological level actually breaks? Support gets thin fast — the next major floor sits way down at $2,940.

Current price action shows ETH at $2.95K with a 24-hour low touching $2.89K, which tells you sellers have been probing aggressively. The $3,050 level is the key trapdoor: if that breaks clean, conviction selling accelerates.

What the Indicators Say (But Price Keeps Ignoring)

Here’s where it gets interesting. The short-term indicators are actually showing some green shoots:

• Hourly MACD is ticking higher in bullish territory
• Hourly RSI is sitting above 50, which suggests intraday buyers have grabbed back some control

Normally that’d be bullish. But and this is a big “but” — indicators can look encouraging while price is still pinned under the $3,175–$3,200 ceiling. So yes, ETH might be bouncing, but it hasn’t actually broken out yet. The indicators are giving the all-clear signal, but the price action is saying “nice try, prove it first.”

The Wait-and-See Setup

Bottom line: $3,200 is the level that flips the entire structure. Get above it and we’re in recovery mode. Fail to hold $3,200 and get punched back below $3,050, and we’re retesting the $3,000 zone with real conviction. Right now? ETH is stuck in the middle, bouncing on support but capped on resistance. Every hour that passes without a decisive break in one direction just adds pressure to the spring — when it finally does snap, the move could be sharp in either direction.