By the end of the month, the spot value of Bitcoin has reached $28.5 billion, while facing a large-scale options expiration. Market participants need to be alert to a risk — institutions may exploit retail investors' enthusiasm for long positions to cover their own escapes, ultimately causing the last buyers to bear the losses.

The upcoming period is densely packed with negative factors worth noting. On January 15, there were reports suggesting that Bitcoin might be removed from the Nasdaq 100 index. Such events often trigger market speculation and sell-offs in advance. Following that, on the 9th, there was progress in the Trump tariff case trial, which markets usually react to early, potentially leading to preemptive selling pressure.

More critically, at the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting at the end of January, the probability of rate cuts has become extremely low, directly implying that the expectation of liquidity tightening will continue to suppress risk assets. Additionally, the US government shutdown window is approaching, adding another major uncertainty factor.

Markets have historically preferred to digest such negative news about half a month in advance, meaning the pressure to sell off and liquidate positions could come earlier than expected. Overall, the upcoming market is full of uncertainties, and aggressive long positions should be approached with caution.