Will gold continue to surge or stop? Analyzing the reasons behind the price increase 2568-2569

Gold Price Breaks Through the 4,000-Dollar Mind Barrier

As we approach the end of 2025, gold prices have demonstrated a financial university’s worth by opening a major milestone at $4,000 per ounce. On October 20, the price expanded to a new historic high of $4,181 per ounce.

For those who entered the market earlier this year, returns have surged over 66% in just seven months. This record is even more impressive compared to the previous period, which took 14 months to jump from $2,000 to $3,000. In Thailand, 96.5% gold bars have already surpassed the 62,000 Baht mark, prompting analysts to revise their initial forecast of 55,000 Baht.

Gold Phenomenon: The Market’s Unexpected Surge

This rapid increase in gold prices has defied global analyst expectations. Not only did prices stop at the previous target of $3,800, but they also continued to set new records 40 times within a single year. This situation is driven by various factors, primarily the unprecedented demand from large financial institutions worldwide, with buying momentum unseen before.

Wall Street’s Perspective: Gold Still Has Room to Grow

Goldman Sachs Plays a Big Game

Major financial institutions have revised their year-end gold price target to $4,900 per ounce for 2026, up from the previous forecast of $4,300. A prominent analyst from the firm states that this push is driven by continuous reserve purchases by central banks and inflows into exchange-traded funds. Additionally, by the end of 2025, the forecast was raised to $3,300 from an initial $2,890.

UBS Recognizes New Central Bank Dynamics

Swiss international banks have set a target of $3,500 per ounce by December, highlighting a global shift in monetary policy. Central banks worldwide have imported over 1,200 tons of gold in a single year, a sign of this trend. The possibility of creating new digital currencies backed by gold is also a significant factor in the ongoing transformation of the global financial system.

Estimated Outlook for Thailand

Compared to global targets, Thai gold prices could reach 75,000-80,000 Baht per Baht of gold by the end of 2026. Although there may be some profit-taking corrections, the overall trend still indicates an upward movement.

Fundamental Reasons for Gold Buying

1. International Trade Uncertainty

The current situation has shifted into a full-scale trade war among superpowers. News of escalating import tariffs has sent warning signals to investors worldwide. This uncertainty has made gold a safe haven asset.

2. Easing Interest Rate Environment

The US Federal Reserve’s start of rate cuts, with a 0.25% reduction in September, has weakened the dollar, making gold more attractive in other currencies. Additionally, declining real yields have reduced the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets.

3. Diversification from Single Currency Dependence

Central banks in growing markets have expanded their gold holdings in ways not seen for decades. The figure of 1,000 tons annually for three consecutive years exemplifies this trend. The potential development of new digital currencies backed by gold is also a highly probable factor in the global financial system’s evolution.

4. Development of Emerging Market Countries

Policy signals from these countries, central to global growth, have promoted gold as a tool for balancing power within the financial system.

Risks That Could Reverse the Trend: Beware of a Turnaround

Trade Negotiation Rebound

If trade tensions ease into amicable negotiations, gold prices could quickly reset. Much of the current buying is driven by a lack of confidence.

Profit-Taking Pressure from the War

After a prolonged strong rally, the scope for selling to realize profits exerts downward pressure, especially when technical indicators signal overbought conditions.

US Dollar Exchange Rate Recovery

If US economic data surpass expectations, the Federal Reserve might delay rate cuts, strengthening the dollar and making gold more expensive for buyers in other currencies.

Higher Possible Interest Rates

If inflationary pressures persist, the Fed may need to keep interest rates high longer than expected, which would negatively impact gold.

Technical Signal Reading for Timing

Jumping Price Movements (Price Surge)

Rapid upward movements beyond normal deviation indicate strong buying interest. Recently, gold has risen over $250 in a short period, signaling a significant rebound and a positive sign for further movement.

RSI Indicator at High Levels

The relative strength index for gold is in an overbought zone, which could signal a short-term correction. However, if buying pressure remains and the indicator breaks above 70, it suggests a bullish trend.

Three Market Cycle Phases

Technical analysis suggests markets typically go through three phases: accumulation, public participation, and distribution. Currently, gold appears to still be in the accumulation phase, with positive news and increased buying creating ongoing momentum.

Candlestick Patterns (Candlestick)

Shooting Star patterns have appeared on the chart, indicating potential reversals. However, in a strong bullish trend, a correction may simply be a pause at a higher level.

Suitable Trading Strategies for the Current Conditions

Strategy 1: Buy the Dip (Buy the Dip)

Since the uptrend remains strong but the pace of rise is rapid, a temporary correction may occur. This strategy involves buying when prices pull back to key support levels, especially at $3,859 (October opening) or $3,782 (support target).

Confirmation is needed via signals such as RSI entering mid-range or MACD starting to turn up, setting stop-loss below the next support, with profit targets at previous highs or resistance levels.

Strategy 2: Breakout Retest (Breakout Retest)

After crossing the important $4,000 mark, prices may retrace to test this level, which has now become a new support. This presents a high-potential entry point.

Wait for the price to dip back to around $3,980-$4,000. When signs of rebound with volume appear, buy and set a stop-loss slightly below. Profit target is $4,059, with the next resistance level.

Strategy 3: Use Fibonacci Ratios (Fibonacci Retracement)

Draw the retracement from the recent rally’s start (e.g., $3,500) to the peak ($4,059).

Look for buy zones at 38.2% or 61.8%, common retracement levels. Enter when the price tests these levels and shows signs of recovery. Set stop-loss below the next Fibonacci level.

Conclusion: Is Gold Ready for a Longer Run?

The outlook for gold prices in 2025-2026 remains upward. Global financial institutions like Goldman Sachs, UBS, and others see $4,900 per ounce as a reasonable forecast. For the Thai market, this could translate to a top price of 75,000-80,000 Baht.

While the medium-term trend is positive, the gold market remains volatile. Many factors influence it, so investors should prepare for fluctuations and plan entry and exit points carefully. Gold’s movements are not always predictable, but once a clear trend is established, patience in the market can be rewarding.