A message on the chain exploded a few days ago—BitMEX founder and well-known derivatives trading expert in the crypto circle Arthur Hayes transferred 682 ETH (worth over $2 million) to a major exchange. Suddenly, all kinds of speculation flew around: dump the market? Collapse in the future? Let me first clarify my stance: don’t overreact, but caution is indeed necessary. This is far from a simple sell signal; it more resembles a warning from a big player about a "wave adjustment"—improper operation could lead to losses.

Let’s start with some basic knowledge for newcomers. Arthur Hayes has never been a retail trader following conventional patterns; every step on his chain is carefully calculated. Past actions reveal the strategy: he once sniped ETHFI at a low point, doubled his position, then directly cashed out on the exchange, earning a single trade of $1.02 million; by mid-November, he precisely timed the exit of $7.4 million worth of Ethereum ecosystem tokens, perfectly avoiding the subsequent pullback, and then used stablecoins to bottom out PENDLE. His operational pattern is simple—accurately hitting wave nodes, avoiding slippage through block trades or OTC deals, never fighting the market. Now that he’s depositing ETH into the exchange, it’s unlikely to be a small-scale, scattered sell-off; instead, he might be coordinating with market makers for large trades or flexibly managing his positions. This precisely reflects the current market being at a delicate balance point.

So, the question is, what’s next for the market? My judgment is: short-term volatility will intensify significantly, and it’s unlikely to see a trend-driven big move before the holiday. Focus on the key level of ETH at 2970—once broken, risks will further unfold.

The macro environment does have some positive factors: although the Fed’s rate cut expectations still exist, liquidity in traditional financial markets is not abundant at year-end, which will directly impact the overall performance of the crypto market. In this environment, every adjustment by large holders can influence market rhythm. Arthur Hayes’ move is very likely a preparation for potential volatility.