Recently, the release of economic data in the United States has completely changed the market's expectations for Liquidity. According to the latest federal funds futures data, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in January 2026 has fallen to 13.3%, while the probability of maintaining the current interest rate level is as high as 86.7%. The implications behind this set of numbers are worth pondering.

The current U.S. economy shows unexpected resilience. Against this backdrop of robust economic fundamentals, the Fed's room for significant monetary easing has been greatly compressed. Many market participants' previous hopes for "liquidity rescue" are being confronted by reality. The high interest rate environment essentially suppresses risk assets—this tightening trend will continue as long as there are no clear signs of economic recession.

For the cryptocurrency market, this means that the traditional "loose monetary policy → influx of funds" logic may take a long time to materialize. What follows is an era of limited incremental funds and a game of existing funds. For those traders who are heavily invested or highly leveraged, this signal is quite dangerous—under the conditions of liquidity exhaustion and high interest rates, they may go bankrupt before any turnaround occurs.

Currently, mainstream cryptocurrencies such as BTC, ETH, and SOL are facing the same macro pressures. A rational strategy is not to bet on interest rate cuts, but to reassess one's positions and risk tolerance under the long-term pressure of high interest rates.