#大户持仓变化 Market Sentiment Indicator is Here｜Trading Guide for December 5th, 21:30

Tonight at 9:30 PM Beijing time, the US will release two manufacturing data points — the New York Fed December Manufacturing Index and the Outlook for the next six months. It may seem insignificant, but these data points can influence the short-term direction of the US dollar and gold. Crude oil will also react to the dollar's movements and may fluctuate accordingly.

Let's look at the logic. If the data far exceeds previous 18.7 and the forecasted 10, the dollar might surge, putting pressure on gold. Conversely, if the data underperforms, the dollar could weaken, giving gold an opportunity. But honestly, the impact of these indicators is mostly short-term; they won't change the overall trend of gold's rally this year or the volatile, bearish outlook for crude oil.

Three trading pitfalls to avoid:

**Don't be led by the data** — The key isn't whether the data is good or bad, but how the market reacts 15-30 minutes after the release, whether prices can stabilize, and if trading volume is sufficient. Let the actual price action tell the story.

**Stick to your trading framework** — The annual upward trend for gold remains intact, and crude oil is still in a weak, oscillating phase due to oversupply. During this period, keep your positions small, set reasonable stop-loss levels, and avoid being shaken out.

**Core rule: Small data indicates volatility, big trend depends on structure** — Even if there’s some movement this time, as long as key support or resistance levels aren’t broken, don’t waver in your trading logic.

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