#比特币对比代币化黄金 How should we view this wave of gold trends? Three clues to help you clarify your thinking

The gold market has been pretty lively lately. Whether to make short-term moves or hold for the long run really depends on three dimensions: what the Fed is doing, why domestic and international prices aren't moving in sync, and where the money is flowing.

First, the most direct factor—the Fed might take action this month. December’s core PCE inflation dropped to 2.8%, lower than expected, so now the market believes there’s a 90% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the end of the month. The barriers are basically gone, making this the biggest short-term catalyst. But be careful about two things: first, the Fed might deliver a “hawkish cut” (cutting rates but using tough language), and second, the positive news may already be priced in, so the market could “sell the news” and pull back when the cut actually happens. However, if the rate cut comes with a clear plan for balance sheet expansion? Then gold prices are very likely to take off directly.

Next, let’s look at the price divergence. On December 6, London spot gold slipped 0.23% to $4,196, while domestic gold T+D actually rose 0.20% to 955 yuan/gram, and jewelry prices held steady at 1,328 yuan/gram. Why is the domestic market so resilient? Three reasons: the global supply-demand gap exceeds 800 tons, domestic investment and consumption demand has surged 29% year-on-year while domestic gold mining can’t keep up; the new VAT policy on non-standard gold bars has pushed up costs; and the People’s Bank of China has been buying for 12 straight months, with domestic gold ETFs attracting more than 2.6 billion yuan in a month—buying interest is just too strong.

Finally, the funding side—that’s the foundation of the long-term logic. Global gold ETFs have seen inflows for six consecutive months, with total holdings at 3,932 tons by the end of November. New purchases in 2025 might break records at over 700 tons, with Asia—especially China—being the main buyers. Central banks worldwide made net purchases of 634 tons in the first three quarters, and Goldman Sachs predicts another 41 tons of buying per month going forward. With the de-dollarization trend, gold’s role as a monetary asset is getting stronger. On the supply side? Global gold mine output is stuck at around 3,600 tons per year, while technology demand for gold has jumped 30-40% year-on-year, so the supply-demand imbalance won’t ease any time soon.

In summary: in the short term, keep a close eye on whether and how the Fed acts this month; the medium- and long-term bullish logic remains intact. Any pullbacks may actually be opportunities. Follow these three clues and your trading window will become clear.