Recently, an internet economist Timothy Peterson made a bombshell discovery – the Bitcoin trend in 2025 is almost like a twin to the bear market in 2022. This is not just casual talk; the correlation on the daily chart is 80%, and it skyrockets to 98% on the monthly chart. This level of overlap is already chilling to think about.

What hurts even more is the performance in November. Going through historical data since 2015, the decline this month ranks in the bottom 10%. According to past patterns, if November is down, December is likely not to be much better – having two consecutive months of "red alerts" is no longer a novelty.

However, speaking of which, there have been some subtle changes at the macro level. From November last year to now, stock funds have absorbed $900 billion, while other assets combined have only reached $100 billion. More critically, Bitcoin ETFs received a net inflow of $220 billion during the week of Thanksgiving, and Ethereum ETFs also saw an inflow of $31.2 billion. This set of numbers reveals a signal: institutions may have stopped selling.

So will there be a traditional "Christmas market" at the end of the year? The changes in the funding side have indeed provided some room for imagination. Will history repeat itself or will the script reverse? We will see in the next month.