The phrase "I won't follow altcoins anymore" is actually very dangerous; it should never be taken as a reason to go long. In history, during every major downturn cycle, we can see similar scenes:

1. The relative fall of altcoins against BTC has started to converge, and even shows short-term strength;
2. BTC.D starts to fall;
3. However, at the same time, the overall market capitalization (especially TOTAL, TOTAL ex-BTC) continues to fall aggressively.

There will also be a fall in BTC.D during the weekly upward trend, but that is a completely different environment and should not be confused.
In a falling cycle, the so-called "altcoins do not follow the fall" is often a result, not a reason.

1. Altcoin has fallen excessively in panic, with beta amplified;
2. Market makers, LPs, and institutional portfolios repeatedly rebalance their overall positions, single asset risks, and VaR under risk control constraints;
3. After some altcoins have fallen too deep in absolute price, the selling pressure gradually weakens, combined with some passive buying and short covering, thus showing a "relatively strong" performance against BTC.

From the price performance perspective, it can easily be misinterpreted as "the altcoin season is coming", but essentially, this is the result of extreme volatility + risk rebalancing, rather than the driving force behind a new round of increase.

Using "altcoin does not follow the fall" to predict prices is often a form of laziness:
The real question is:

Is the current fall approaching the key risk zone of large positions? Has any structural forced buying (forced liquidation counterpart, futures-spot price difference, arbitrage structure) been triggered?

Or is it just because the active buying is extremely weak, leading to passive risk control adjustments making it seem like "someone is picking up the pieces" at the price?

It is particularly important to emphasize:

If BTC.D is declining while TOTAL continues to trend weakly, then this type of "altcoin relative anti-fall" is more of an optical illusion in a bear market structure, rather than a leveraged money-making signal.

The "altcoin season" that is truly worth paying attention to must be seen at least simultaneously:

1. The total market value has significantly expanded, with both volume and price rising.
2. Mainstream altcoins are trending upward against BTC on a weekly basis, rather than bouncing back from oversold conditions;
3. Market breadth improvement - what is rising is a basket, rather than individual narrative coins dancing alone.

Before this, "altcoin is not following" was more like a reminder: risks are spreading from single large coins to weaker, less liquid long-tail assets, and active buying has not really returned.

Wishing safety to leveraged traders.