#非农就业数据将公布 Beware of the non-farm payroll data "surprising downturn" triggering the market!

On Friday at 20:30 Beijing time, the United States will release the non-farm payroll report for April. An authoritative media survey shows that the number of non-farm jobs in the U.S. is expected to increase by 130,000 in April, a significant decrease compared to the 228,000 increase in March. The U.S. unemployment rate for April is expected to remain at 4.2%. The survey also indicates that the month-over-month increase in average hourly wages for April is expected to remain at 0.3%. The year-on-year increase in average hourly wages for April may rebound to 3.9%, up from 3.8% in March.
Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody's Analytics, stated that financial markets may need to prepare for disappointment regarding Friday's non-farm data. Specifically, he is focusing on job growth being below 100,000, which he expects will lead to negative economic sentiment dominating.
Zandi said: "If the number reaches 100,000 or lower, then be cautious, as it means all other data will become more important, and people will lower their expectations. This could be a tough day for the market."
Torsten Sløk, chief economist at Apollo Global Management, one of Wall Street's top asset management firms, stated: "The employment report for April will be released on Friday, and some leading indicators suggest that the U.S. labor market may experience a significant weakening trend in the coming months."
It is worth noting that, according to data released by the ADP Research Institute on Wednesday, the ADP employment figures, known as the "little non-farm," only increased by 62,000 in April, marking the lowest growth rate in the past nine months, significantly lower than the market expectation of 115,000, and a decrease from the previous month's 155,000.
The Federal Reserve Governor Waller, whose monetary policy stance has long been hawkish, has recently shifted towards a dovish position, repeatedly emphasizing that if the high tariffs implemented by the Trump administration force American companies to lay off employees on a larger scale, he will support interest rate cuts to protect the U.S. labor market.