分析：去全球化与AI重塑宏观环境，加密资产作为高贝塔增长资产遭抛售

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2026-02-24 09:36:45

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PANews 2月24日消息，据Wintermute市场更新报告，当前宏观环境正经历去全球化与人工智能结构性重塑的双重驱动，导致市场进入难以交易的缓慢调整阶段。比特币在6.4万至6.7万美元区间盘整，多次未能站稳7万美元，反弹乏力反映市场缺乏信心。以太坊跌破1,900美元心理关口，下一关键支撑在1,600美元。报告指出，美联储已不再是主导市场的唯一力量，关税结构性持续、AI实时颠覆各行业、增长放缓与通胀粘性并存，使货币政策工具效果减弱。市场正同时定价两大结构性主题：AI估值重估——软件护城河遭重新评估，增长倍数压缩，硬件端资本开支强度受质疑；去全球化——供应链持续碎片化，投入成本上升，地缘政治结算风险成为资产配置的永久特征。这两大因素共同冲击全球一体化、软件杠杆型成长企业的估值溢价。资金正从成长股流向价值板块，黄金、大宗商品、工业、国防等表现优于科技。加密衍生品市场显示方向性需求缺失，资金费率处于多月低点，看跌期权溢价持续上升，未平仓合约自10月以来持续下降。机构需求在比特币价格稳定后未见回归，交易台以卖盘为主。周中短暂出现的高净值客户选择性买入部分山寨币的信号迅速消退，市场仍以防御为主，未准备好奖励早期建仓。报告认为，当前叙事正在整合为宏观体制转变，加密资产正作为最高贝塔的增长资产被抛售。这一转变的持续性将是2026年加密市场最关键的问题。

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