芝商所 BTC 期货活跃度降至 14 个月新低,基差交易失效触发机构资金撤离

BTC1,01%

Gate News 消息,4 月 9 日,芝加哥商品交易所(CME)比特币期货市场持续走弱。数据显示,2026 年 3 月日均未平仓合约(OI)已降至 80 亿美元以下,4 月初进一步降至约 72 亿美元,创 2024 年 2 月以来新低,且已连续第五个月下滑。同时,3 月月度交易量降至 1630 亿美元,较 2025 年 1 月峰值近乎腰斩。

市场分析指出,此轮下滑主要源于"基差交易"(basis trade)的大规模平仓。此前机构通过买入现货 ETF 并做空 CME 期货获取价差收益,是推动 CME 持仓增长的核心动力。但随着比特币价格自 12 万美元高位回落至 7 万美元下方,年化基差收益显著压缩。当前约 5% 的基差收益已接近约 4.5% 的无风险利率水平,在叠加资金成本与对手方风险后,套利空间基本消失,促使杠杆资金撤出。

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