奇虎 360 創辦人周鴻禕在 2026 中關村論壇年會上表示，Token 永遠不可能像手機流量一樣包月無限量使用。他指出，AI 的本質是「算力消耗」，任務越複雜、消耗越高，商業模式將全面轉付費的 Token 經濟。
（前情提要：OpenClaw 創辦人接受彭博專訪：美國可以借鑒中國對小龍蝦 AI 的採用）
（背景補充：OpenClaw 將成立「龍蝦基金會」獨立營運！輝達 Nvidia、位元組跳動 ByteDance 確認加入）
龍蝦（OpenClaw）在中國爆紅之後，不少人開始期待當地的科技公司提供「無限量」的 Token，像手機流量一樣，開始變成月費制無限量？
360 創辦人周鴻禕在 3 月 25 日至 29 日北京舉行的 2026 中關村論壇年會上，直接給出了「不可能」這個答案。
他的核心論點是傳統網路的基礎為「流量」，光纖容量近乎無限，使用者越多邊際成本越低，才撐起了包月吃到飽的商業模式。但 AI 跑的是「算力」和「智力」，任務越複雜、消耗就越高，這個邏輯是根本倒過來了。
Token 不是流量
周鴻禕說，Token 是 AI 消耗算力與智慧的計量單位，單價相對固定，用越多、花越多。這和手機流量的邊際成本遞減模式完全不同。
現實數字已經驗證了這個說法，他表示，目前龍蝦重度使用者月耗 1 億 Token 約需 7,000 元人民幣，獵豹移動執行長傅盛透露，滿配龍蝦的月費接近 3 萬元。
即使什麼任務都不派，龍蝦內建的「心跳機制」每天就會消耗約 20 美元。
深圳甚至有工程師的 API key 遭竊，3 天被盜刷 12,000 美元，成為某些人的「Token焦慮」。
周鴻禕特別點名龍蝦（OpenClaw）的策略，說這個「軟體免費、Token 付費」模式，本質上是在培育使用者的付費習慣。至於阿里為此成立 Token Hub 事業群，周鴻禕的判斷是阿里巴巴看準了 Token 經濟這條路。
龍蝦熱帶來的另一個判斷，是推理算力需求的爆發。周鴻禕預言，隨著龍蝦普及，推理算力需求將暴漲百倍甚至千倍。他也特別區分「訓練算力」和「推理算力」這兩個概念：訓練是大公司的入場券，但未來真正的爆發點在推理端。
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