FTX 破產清算或許是近年加密市場最大的意外教訓之一，但它留下的後遺症，遠比多數人想像的更深遠。鏈上分析師 Willy Woo 近日一文，道出了 2023-2025 年間為什麼加密貨幣散戶幾乎集體輸給比特幣的結構性原因。
FTX 清算意外發明了一種新型資產交易
當 FTX 破產管理人進場清算資產時，他們面臨一個難題：大量 SOL 代幣在鏈上處於鎖倉狀態，無法立即出售。清算方的解法是透過法律協議，先行出售這批未來才能到帳的鎖倉代幣——買方現在付款，清算方未來交割。
FTX 債權人倡議者 Sunil 整理的數據顯示，FTX 破產財產在 2024 年 5 月的三場拍賣中賣出了 4,100 萬枚鎖倉 SOL：
Galaxy、Defiance：最大買家，以每枚 64 美元買入 2,550 萬枚鎖倉 SOL（當時市價約 192 美元）
Pantera 等基金：約以每枚 95 美元買入
Figure 等多家機構：約以每枚 102 美元買入
換言之，大型基金以市價六折不到的折扣，拿到了數千萬枚 SOL。SOL 最高漲至 2025 年 1 月的 295 美元，這批買家帳面報酬驚人。
對沖基金如何做到「近乎無風險的 70-80% 報酬」
Willy Woo 指出，拿到折扣鎖倉代幣的對沖基金，並不是在賭代幣漲跌。他們的操作是：
在期貨市場放空（short）等量的 SOL，對沖幣價波動
同時賺取質押收益（staking yield）與期現價差（basis yield）
加上代幣折扣本身的利潤
結果是：幣價漲跌與他們無關，穩穩鎖定 70-80% 的「近乎無風險」年化報酬。而散戶買入現貨，等於替對沖基金的放空倉位提供了流動性。
FTX 的模板，被整個行業複製
更大的問題是，這個模式不只發生在 FTX 清算上。Willy Woo 指出，幾乎每個加密貨幣項目都有背後的風險投資人與基金會，持有大量鎖倉代幣——這些代幣被轉賣給對沖基金後，基金在期貨市場同步放空，散戶的「山寨幣牛市夢」就這樣被提前消化。
「你的 alpha 全都流進了做市場中立策略的對沖基金口袋，」他說。「這就是為什麼 2023-2025 年的加密市場表現如此糟糕——你被人提前賣掉了。」
比特幣為何獨善其身
比特幣沒有基金會、沒有風投分配、沒有被折價賣給對沖基金的鎖倉代幣，供應時間表公開、不可更改、對所有人中立。這不只是敘事優勢，更是結構性優勢。
Willy Woo 的結論簡短有力：「就買比特幣，繼續過你的生活。」他同時指出，正因為許多項目的鎖倉代幣在 2023-2025 年已被提前賣出，下一輪牛市或許反而少了這部分的賣壓，但這對散戶而言仍是「內部人才能知道的資訊」。
這篇文章 FTX 破產清算意外創造的「對沖基金收割手冊」：為何 2023-2025 年山寨幣幾乎全輸給比特幣 最早出現於 鏈新聞 ABMedia。
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