Gate News 消息，3 月 23 日，比特币价格在跌破关键头肩顶颈线后延续弱势，近一周累计下跌约6%，当前徘徊在68100美元附近。技术形态显示，下方潜在目标指向62200美元区域，市场短期承压明显。
从结构上看，比特币在12小时级别完成头肩顶形态，颈线于3月21日被有效跌破。该形态通常预示趋势反转，理论跌幅约10%。值得注意的是，此前颈线呈上倾走势，意味着该区域原本存在持续买盘支撑，一旦失守，抛压往往会进一步放大。
不过，动能指标释放出一定分歧信号。价格在3月8日至22日期间不断抬高低点，而RSI却持续走低，形成隐藏的看涨背离。目前RSI位于39.77，虽低于中性水平，但尚未进入极端超卖区间，为短期反弹保留空间。
链上数据则呈现出另一种趋势。Glassnode数据显示，持有至少1000枚比特币的地址数量已升至1283个，创下一年新高。仅在颈线跌破后的两天内，新增约6000枚比特币被吸纳。同时，长期持有者（持币超过一年）净增持规模升至144374枚，较前一日显著增加，表明部分资金将回调视为布局机会。
尽管如此，上方抛压依然密集。链上URPD指标显示，69400美元与70600美元附近分别聚集大量筹码，合计超过67万枚比特币处于潜在解套区间。一旦价格反弹至该区域，可能面临集中抛售，限制上行空间。
短线来看，69500美元成为关键分水岭。若价格重新站稳该位置，并突破70700美元，或确认抛压被逐步消化；反之，若跌破67600美元，市场可能进一步下探64000美元甚至62000美元区间，极端情况下或测试59600美元支撑。
当前阶段，比特币走势呈现技术面走弱与资金面增持并存的格局，市场方向仍取决于关键价位的争夺结果。
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