Information Market: The Next $100 Billion Track

Author: Stacy Muur

Kaito recently released its Information Market Ranking, which is not just a prediction market ranking. It concerns Information Financialization—turning data, insights, and forecasts into tradable assets.

What does this mean? How is it different from traditional prediction markets? Which participants are worth paying attention to?

###What is an information market?

The information market is a evolutionary form of prediction markets. It no longer merely bets on the final outcome, but instead monetizes the entire information discovery process.

Traditional Prediction Market

• Binary Result: "Will BTC reach 100,000 USD by the end of the year?" (Yes/No)
• Event-Centric: Specific and time-bound predictions
• Winner Takes All: Those who predict correctly win, while those who predict incorrectly lose.

Information Market

• Continuous Flow: Real-time data streams, sentiment, and alpha discovery
• Process-Oriented: Reward information sharing, not just the final outcome.
• Value Added: Multiple participants can benefit from high-quality contributions.

Imagine the prediction market as a horse racing bet. The information market pays rewards to the best trainers, jockeys, and analysts—even if their horses do not win.

Insight: You are not just betting on what will happen; you can also earn rewards by understanding why things happen and sharing that knowledge.

###Kaito's Leaderboard: Market Landscape

Layer One: Market Leaders

• Polymarket - Monthly trading volume exceeds $1 billion and has been approved by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to return to the U.S. market. The king of liquidity.
• Kalshi - Monthly trading volume of $875 million, valuation of $2 billion. A regulated challenger.

Level Two: High Potential Players

• Infinite - A social-first, creator-driven marketplace.
• Alkimiya - Focused on the Bitcoin mining market.
• Talus - AI native, agent mutual trading.

Third Layer: Niche Platform

Noise, countless, hedgehog,

TrueMarket - All methods for building domain-specific applications.

Level 4: Experiment

Castora, Bluff, opinionsdotfun, XO Market - early experiments worth tracking.

###Investment Perspective

High Risk/High Reward

• Talus (Artificial Intelligence + Prediction Market = Huge Upside Potential)
• Unlimited (Creator Economy Cross-Border)

Safer Institutional Investment

• Kalshi (regulated moat, potential IPO)
• Diverse Market (Network Effects + US Returns)

Niche Alpha

• Alkimiya (Financialization of Bitcoin Mining)

###Key Drivers

• Regulatory Clarity: The CFTC's approval has opened the floodgates.
• Artificial Intelligence Integration: Agent for real-time trading and analysis.
• Creator Economy: Analysts and influencers want to monetize insights.
• Election Cycle: Predicting traffic surges during political events.

We are shifting from the attention economy to the information economy. People are no longer just consuming content, but will also be rewarded for creating, organizing, and verifying information.

Kaito's leaderboard is not just a ranking; it is a map depicting how information is priced, traded, and monetized. This market could exceed $100 billion, but we are still in the early stages of "dial-up internet."

The ultimate winners will be those who build the best "refineries" for the "oil" of the new era—information.