Abstract

• Platforms like Pump.fun have triggered an explosion in meme coin issuance, yet with a success rate of less than 1.3% and a survival rate of only 3%. Meme coins have undergone four generations of evolution, showing trends toward platformization, AI integration, and multi-chain distribution. The use of tools has accelerated lifecycle compression to mere days or even hours.
• The lifecycle of meme can be divided into five distinct stages, each exhibiting quantifiable on-chain characteristics: Sprouting (few initial holders) → Spreading (community activity and trading volume surge) → Expansion (peak in holders and transaction volume) → Peak (influx of imitators, core coin performance declines) → Decline (liquidity outflows, social engagement collapse).

• On-chain and social signals jointly forecast meme market trends. Social buzz and on-chain search attract investors, while DEX liquidity and Pump.fun rankings reflect capital inflows. KOLs, wallet tracking, and copy trading create social-on-chain feedback loops, driving sharp price spikes—but also accelerating drawdowns.
• Top Memes like DOGE, SHIB, PEPE, and TRUMP have experienced significantly shorter lifecycles, with market cap milestones reached in days rather than years. During early-stage booms, the number of holders grew exponentially: PEPE’s holders increased 20x, TRUMP surged from thousands to over 1 million. DOGE and SHIB’s price inflection points were mainly driven by on-chain transactions and holding patterns, while PEPE and TRUMP were more affected by Google Trends, news events, and Twitter sentiment.

• Using the SIPLW five-signal system (Social buzz, Interaction on-chain, Price performance, Liquidity changes, Whale behavior), one can identify a meme project’s current lifecycle stage. Key indicators include tweet volume, wallet growth rate, TVL, and whale movements. Tools like Dexscreener, Dune, and Arkham can help quantify stage recognition and enable high-frequency tracking, enhancing response agility.

• Meme lifecycles have compressed from several months to 1–3 days. To adapt, strategies must become high-frequency and tool-driven: deploying automated signal detection systems, building Whale Watch dashboards, closely monitoring trending tokens on platforms like Pump.fun, and using multi-chain arbitrage and flash liquidity switching to keep pace with the rapidly evolving meme speculation meta.

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