Fitch: Changes in the Fed's economic forecasts reflect tariff risks

On March 20, Jinshi Data reported that Fitch analyst Brian Coulton stated that the latest economic projections from Federal Reserve officials reflect the expected impact of tariffs. The Fed now expects the PCE inflation rate to be 2.7% by the end of 2025, up from the December estimate of 2.5%. The GDP growth forecast has been revised down from 2.1% to 1.7%. This change "illustrates the adverse effects of tariffs," as tariffs will raise the prices of imported consumer goods and capital goods. Coupled with a recent sharp rise in households' inflation expectations for the next five years, this makes the Fed's job much more difficult.