What do the recent news from the SEC about the XRP Spot ETF really mean? Has it really been approved?

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has officially started reviewing Grayscale's XRP and Dogecoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) applications, fueling speculation about the potential approval of altcoin ETFs.

Although considering the evaluation is part of the institution's routine process, analysts claim that it indicates a changing attitude towards altcoin ETF approvals.

Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Eric Balchunas said in a comment on X that, "It's a good sign that it slightly increases our already quite good approval odds for these altcoins that were said to withdraw immediately after applying in the past."

Under former Chairman Gary Gensler, the SEC swiftly rejected similar applications. However, the recent decision may indicate a potential change in regulatory approach, likely influenced by Donald Trump's election victory and promise to ease cryptocurrency regulations.

This year, ETF issuers flooded the SEC with applications for altcoins such as XRP, Solana, Dogecoin, and Litecoin.

Litecoin, generally considered the first altcoin, was released in 2011 when there were only eight altcoins on the market. Due to its structural similarity to Bitcoin, analysts believe it has a higher chance of obtaining regulatory approval.

Balchunas and Bloomberg Intelligence analyst James Seyffart estimate the probability of Litecoin obtaining ETF approval as 90%, while the Polymarket prediction market has set this probability at 87% for 2025. Balchunas explained that classifying Litecoin as a commodity rather than a security likely simplified its regulatory path compared to other altcoins like Solana.