IEA Monthly Report: Oversupply Shrinks, Modestly Raises Oil Demand Expectations

On February 13, the International Energy Agency (IEA) slightly raised its forecast for the rise of global oil demand and said that OPEC+ members’ compliance with production quotas has improved, which will reduce the oversupply expected by the market. The IEA now estimates that global oil demand growth will change to 1.1 million b/d this year, from 1.05 million b/d previously, to an average of 104 million b/d. This year’s growth is expected to exceed last year’s, but it is still below the level of more than 2 million barrels per day in 2023. The agency’s forecast is also significantly lower than OPEC’s, which now expects demand to rise by 1.45 million b/d. Last year’s demand growth was reassessed to 870,000 barrels per day, compared with a previous forecast of 940,000 barrels per day.