Fed megaphone: Unemployment rate shows the US economy is getting closer to recession

On July 5th, Jinshi Data reported that Nick Timiraos, the “Fed Loudspeaker,” said that the US unemployment rate rose from 3.96% in May to 4.05% in June. This data has pumped up 0.22% since March (3.83%). From the perspective of the Sam rule, the 3-month average is 0.42% higher than the 12-month low point, which is getting closer to the threshold of 0.5%. The implication of the “Sam rule” is that when the 3-month average unemployment rate is 0.5 percentage points higher than the 12-month low point, the economy will fall into a recession.

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