UBS: The U.S. economy is expected to achieve a soft landing

Brian Rose, senior U.S. economist at UBS Financial Services, said that the U.S. economy seems to be heading for a soft landing, and below-trend growth in the short term will help bring down inflation. With inflation easing faster than expected, the Fed’s rate hikes appear to be over. If the economy achieves a soft landing as expected, Rose believes the Fed will start cutting interest rates around the middle of next year, with 25 basis points per quarter. If there is a recession, there is no reason for the Fed to maintain a restrictive policy, and interest rate cuts will be much larger. If the economy continues to grow faster than expected, then the Fed is likely to stay on hold for the entire 2024.