China's birth rate hits a historic low; the brief rebound in the Year of the Dragon cannot prevent a fertility collapse

Despite the Chinese government’s continuous implementation of policies to encourage childbirth over the years, including cash subsidies, extended maternity leave, and tax reductions, the latest data shows that the birth rate has not increased but decreased, even reaching the lowest level on record in 2025. This worsening population crisis poses unprecedented challenges to the economy and social systems.

Birth rate falls below warning line, only 5.6‰ in 2025

According to historical data compiled by Wind Information, China’s birth rate in 2025 dropped to only 5.6 per thousand people, below the 6.4 per thousand in 2023, marking a new low since records began in the 1950s. The total number of newborns nationwide in 2025 is approximately 7.9 million, a significant decline from 9.5 million in 2024. Despite continuous government efforts to promote fertility, these measures have failed to reverse the trend.

Year of the Dragon effect a fleeting bloom, policy stimulation weakens

In 2024, the Year of the Dragon, traditionally considered auspicious in China, the birth rate temporarily rose to 6.77‰, which was attributed to the influence of the “Dragon Baby” culture. However, this small peak was short-lived, and by 2025, the birth rate plummeted again, indicating that short-term incentives from traditional culture cannot offset the long-term low fertility willingness.

Yue Su, Chief Economist at The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), pointed out: “The decline is quite remarkable, especially in the absence of major external shocks.” She believes that the effects of government’s fertility subsidies and support policies are gradually weakening, and that economic pressures and fierce employment competition are causing young people to delay marriage and childbearing plans, which is the key reason for the continued decline in birth rates.

Full policy toolkit deployed, extended maternity leave powerless

In recent years, China has introduced a series of fertility support policies, including cash incentives and tax reductions for families with children under 3 years old, and extending maternity leave from 98 days in 2024 to 158 days in 2025, in hopes of increasing family willingness to raise children. However, statistical results show that these measures have had minimal effect and have failed to reverse the population decline trend.

Senior population proportion continues to rise, total population declines for the fourth consecutive year

Alongside the declining birth rate, the population structure is aging. In 2025, the proportion of people aged 60 and above increased to 23%, up from 22% the previous year. According to data from China’s National Bureau of Statistics, China’s total population has decreased for the fourth consecutive year, with a reduction of 3.4 million people in 2025, down to 1.405 billion.

Shrinking workforce and retirement burden double pressure

Economists generally worry that China’s ongoing population decline and aging trend will have long-term impacts on economic development and social security systems. The decrease in birth numbers means a future reduction in the labor force, while the number of retirees needing support continues to grow, putting heavy pressure on the already strained pension system. It may also force the government to increase social security contribution rates, further squeezing the disposable income of the younger generation.

Su Yue stated: “Population decline means a smaller consumer base in the future, and the risk of supply-demand imbalance will also increase.” She called on the Chinese government to adopt more forceful policies to stimulate childbirth.

Birth rate falls below warning line, widening gap from stable replacement level

The World Bank’s latest statistics show that China’s total fertility rate (average number of children born per woman over her lifetime) in 2023 has fallen to 1, well below the 2.2 needed to maintain population stability, and also below the levels of most developing countries. This figure not only reflects the fertility crisis but also highlights the changing attitudes and practical difficulties faced by the younger generation regarding childbirth.

This article “China’s Birth Rate Hits Record Low, Year of the Dragon Briefly Rebounds but Cannot Stop Demographic Collapse” first appeared on Lian News ABMedia.