Monero Price Prediction: $400 Becomes the Dividing Line Between Bull and Bear, Next Target $420

Monero (XMR) experienced a slight correction over the weekend, with the price dropping approximately 4.09%, falling back from around $419. The correction started in the $418–$420 range, which has repeatedly served as a key resistance level over the past six weeks. Previously, the market widely expected XMR to test $420 or even $450 after re-confirming the $360 support. Currently, the $420 target has been validated, but the upward momentum is clearly lacking.

From a weekly perspective, Monero overall maintains a bullish pattern. After breaking below $367 (the Fibonacci 50% retracement level), the price quickly stabilized and rebounded to around $419. Meanwhile, the RSI remains around 59, indicating that medium-term momentum still favors the bulls. However, the On-Balance Volume (OBV) indicator has issued a warning signal. Over the past seven months, the OBV high points have continued to decline, forming a clear bearish divergence with the price, suggesting that the rally has not been supported by strong genuine demand. Such a structure is often difficult to sustain long-term.

In the short-term timeframe, the 4-hour chart shows more notable changes. Although the price structure has not yet been broken, the RSI has fallen below the 50 neutral line, indicating that short-term momentum is beginning to weaken. Additionally, the OBV has broken below last week’s low, implying increasing selling pressure. In this context, $395 could serve as the first important support level; if broken, the demand zones at $380 and $360 will become critical defensive areas in the next phase.

The $400 level is regarded as a core support for two reasons: it is an important psychological threshold, and it is also a crucial position for bulls to maintain the medium-term trend. If XMR can find support near $400 and rebound quickly, it will help stabilize market sentiment and create conditions for another challenge at $420. Conversely, a sustained break below $400 could lead to a deeper correction in the market.

For trading strategies, short-term bulls may consider taking partial profits after facing resistance at $420, which is a relatively prudent approach. Based on current evidence, the market temporarily lacks the momentum to challenge $450. Conservative traders can wait for the price to stabilize around $395–$380 before evaluating entry opportunities, while trend traders should focus on the gains or losses at $400 to determine whether XMR will continue its correction or re-enter an upward channel.