Prediction Markets Polymarket and Kalshi Assign Mixed Odds for Bitcoin’s Path Above $100K in 2025

As of Sunday, Nov. 30, 2025, bitcoin is priced at $91,482, and odds from prediction platforms Polymarket and Kalshi show traders expecting potential gains but keeping their expectations firmly tethered to earth.

As 2025 Nears the End, Prediction Market Odds Get Firmer

Bitcoin is trading at $91,482 on Sunday, Nov. 30, 2025, and prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi show traders leaning toward moderate upside expectations while treating extreme price targets as unlikely. Their aggregated odds point to a market anticipating potential strength into year’s end but not fully embracing the more dramatic price narratives circulating online.

On Polymarket, the most active brackets revolve around targets still within reach. Traders give bitcoin a 48% chance of touching $100,000 by Dec. 31, making it the leading probability in the platform’s lower-tier range. The $80,000 threshold follows at 33%, reflecting expectations that bitcoin could retrace yet remain comfortably above earlier yearly lows. Higher targets draw thinner support, with $110,000 at 20% and $120,000 at 7%.

Image source: Polymarket on Nov. 30, 2025. Downside probabilities show a market largely discounting dramatic declines. Polymarket assigns bitcoin an 11% chance of slipping to $70,000 before year-end, while deeper drops — $50,000 at 2% and $20,000 at 1% — barely register among bettors. The distribution points to a broadly neutral stance, with traders viewing severe drops as unlikely while acknowledging the possibility of volatility in the final month.

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Polymarket’s long-range “moon-shot” market presents a much more cautious sentiment. Traders show little appetite for aggressive upside at the far end of the spectrum, assigning less than 1% odds to bitcoin finishing 2025 anywhere near $200,000, $250,000, or $1 million. Mid-tier brackets see slightly more attention, with $170,000 at 1% and $150,000 and $140,000 at 2% each. The most optimistic outcome in this tier is $130,000 at 3%, which still suggests that the market sees limited room for outsized moves.

Kalshi’s odds mirror that restraint, placing the highest confidence in only moderate price advances. The platform assigns a 6% chance each for bitcoin to reach either $130,000 or $140,000 by year’s end. From there, probabilities taper: $150,000 sits at 4%, while $160,000, $170,000, and $180,000 each hold 3%. Targets between $190,000 and $200,000 fall to 2%, and anything above $225,000 carries 1% or less.

Higher-end brackets on Kalshi, including the $250,000 range and levels exceeding $300,000, settle into fractional odds that reflect limited belief in dramatic price acceleration. Overall, traders across both markets appear to expect measured movement rather than explosive gains heading into December.

FAQ ❓

• How much is bitcoin trading for today? Bitcoin is priced at $91,482 as of Sun., Nov. 30, 2025.
• What does Polymarket expect for bitcoin by year-end? Bettors give the highest odds to a move toward $100,000.
• How bullish is Kalshi on bitcoin? Kalshi assigns modest odds to targets above $130,000.
• Are high-end price predictions gaining traction? Data shows limited support for extreme year-end price targets.