From the perspective of on-chain data, exploring the gradually disappearing cyclicality of BTC.

BTC, known as digital gold, is still young, and the disappearance of the four-year cycle is a must. (Synopsis: Take Bitcoin's 2021 double-top structure as an example: talk about what is a “future data leak”) (Background added: The reason why I will never make a breakout order: the trap of the market maker hunting liquidity) Key Points: BTC's strong cyclicality is inevitably disappearing The two tops of 2021: the total defeat of the Carving Boat Sword School For the first time in history: the dramatic change in the structure of URPD chips Analysis after the disappearance of periodicity & Coping strategy The cyclicality that will inevitably disappear I believe that most people in the cryptocurrency circle are no strangers to the strong cyclicality of BTC. Derived from the design of halving production every four years, BTC's price action seems to correspond to it perfectly. At the end of 2013, the end of 2017 and the end of 2021, the law of accurately corresponding to three cyclical tops, once every four years, has made countless market participants regard it as a guideline. However, from the perspective of scientific research, it is obvious that a simple carving of the boat and seeking a sword cannot draw a rigorous conclusion. As the impact of halving production decreases and market capitalization grows, there is no argument that can stand the test of science and support the four-year cycle. If the cycle disappears in the future, how should we, as traders, respond? The most powerful group: market participants who hold for between 1 and 3 years Historically, there is a group whose behavior always corresponds perfectly to the bull-bear cycle of BTC, and this group is the market participants who “hold for 1 to 3 years”. The above chart is the proportion of “market participants holding between 1 and 3 years”, we can clearly see: whenever this proportion bottoms, it always corresponds to the top of the price cycle Whenever this proportion peaks, it always corresponds to the bottom of the price cycle Vernacular is: whenever the BTC price peaks, they also happen to be sold out; And whenever the price of BTC bottoms, they also happen to accumulate a lot of chips. It is impossible to give an answer as to what is the cause and what is the effect, but it is clear that the emergence of the bull and bear cycle is inseparable from them. At the same time, we can find that the minimum value of this ratio is increasing year by year after each cycle, indicating that more and more participants choose to hold BTC for a long time; As BTC gradually enters the eyes of the world, there will be more people willing to hold BTC, so it is reasonable to speculate that the bottom value of this ratio will only get larger in the future. The Two Tops of 2021: The Total Defeat of the Sword Seeking School Previously, I wrote several articles dedicated to the double tops in 2021. Combined with today's topic, I will cut into the analysis from another perspective: This chart is “Realized Profit”, the so-called Realized Profit, is based on the principle of UTXO on-chain accounting, counting how much profit is made every day. Whenever a centralized, huge amount of Realized Profit appears, it indicates that there are a large number of low-cost chips to sell and cash, which is a big warning sign. From the perspective of on-chain data, in fact, in April 2021 (the first top), the cycle has ended; However, due to various factors, BTC created a second top in November 2021. As shown in the figure above, when the second top appears, it is also accompanied by a huge amount of Realized Profit, so the question arises: “Where does this huge amount of Realized Profit come from?” Combined with the first chart, the proportion of groups holding for 1 to 3 years at that time had actually bottomed out in April 2021, so the huge amount of Realized Profit that appeared at the second top could only be derived from the group that accumulated chips from “May to July 2021”. Here's what it's worth thinking about: If the cyclicality gradually disappears in the future, will there be more such “short bottoming” and then the start of a new round of the main rising wave? As I mentioned in previous articles, past tops have often been accompanied by two mass distributions, and this cycle did see a second large-scale distribution last December. But if the volatility decreases in the future, does it only take one time to complete the new bull-bear cycle conversion belonging to BTC? Food for thought. For the first time in history: the seismic change of URPD chip structure Next, let's talk about this topic from the perspective of chip structure. I have shown the URPD chip structure diagram at the top of the last three cycles as shown above, and you can see that this cycle is the most special one so far. I say this because for the first time in history, after the second large-scale distribution, the top area piled up a huge number of chips. Based on this, we may have to admit that BTC is stepping out into a new era. Analysis after the disappearance of cyclicality & coping strategies If the future cyclicality does weaken as expected, how should we, as traders, look at the market? Let's start with the conclusion: never seek the sword, and analyze it with the logic of deduction. In the young life cycle of BTC, the sample size is seriously insufficient, which has caused countless theories of the Ark School to be overturned one after another. Cottage season, New Year must rise, after halving n days must rise … etc., the family is too busy to prepare, not to mention the various indicators that were beaten in 2021. Therefore, in order to overcome the problem of insufficient sample size, we must ensure the existence of logic as much as possible in the process of research. Take an example of this: AVIV Heatmap. AVIV, which can be considered an optimized version of MVRV, is computationally targeted at active (rather than completely immobile) chips, leaving aside the influence of the miner part. The AVIV Heatmap, on the other hand, is one of the models I personally designed, taking advantage of the presence of mean reversion in AVIV and coloring according to its deviation. The advantage of this method of analysis is that the deviation degree is calculated taking into account the “standard deviation”, which is an indicator that directly reflects the volatility of BTC. Therefore, as volatility decreases, the criteria for defining extreme values in AVIV Heatmap are relaxed. Summary Make a brief summary: As the market matures, the disappearance of periodicity is the only way Chips held for 1 to 3 years, which dominated the bull and bear cycle in the past The emergence of the double top in 2021 announced the failure of the methodology of carving the boat and seeking the sword The chip structure has undergone a huge change that has never happened before As a trader, logic must be guaranteed in the research process to ensure the usability of the results Related reports Interpretation of the 6 current situations of the Web3 AI track: Compared with AI agents, institutions pay more attention to infrastructure AI agent integration Web3, the era of robots helping you manage money on the chain is coming? Mind Network Complete Introduction: Using FHE Technology to Solve AI Agent Security Problems (From the perspective of on-chain data, discuss the cyclicality of BTC's gradual disappearance) This article was first published in BlockTempo's “Dynamic Trend - The Most Influential Blockchain News Media”.