SOL Price Prediction: ETF Absorbs $2 Billion, Can It Replicate Bitcoin's 10x Miracle?

The U.S. trading financial funds welcomed new inflows this week, with several issuers launching Spot Solana ETFs, boosting optimism for SOL. VanEck, 21Shares, and Canary Capital have all joined the ranks, and the total funds raised for Solana-based ETFs have exceeded $2 billion. The long-term target of SOL hitting $1500 (up 10 times from the current price) is becoming increasingly feasible.

7 Solana ETF listings have cumulatively raised over 2 billion

(Source: SoSoValue)

This week, a large number of Solana-based new ETFs have landed on US exchanges, opening a new chapter for SOL price predictions. VanEck's VSOL, Fidelity's FSOL, 21Shares' TSOL, and Canary Capital's stakable SOLC have all joined this lineup, expanding the regulated alternative cryptocurrency pipeline at the institutional level. This group not only represents higher accessibility but also signifies mainstream acceptance.

Fidelity has become the first traditional asset management company to offer Solana products outside of digital-native companies, marking a significant milestone. Fidelity manages over $4.5 trillion in assets and is one of the largest asset management firms in the world. When such a traditional financial giant decides to launch a Solana ETF, it is not only an acknowledgment of Solana's technology but also a vote of confidence in its long-term value. Fidelity's client base primarily consists of institutional investors and high-net-worth individuals, who can now allocate to Solana through compliant channels.

After the pioneers of Bitwise and Grayscale achieved success, they launched BSOL and GSOL. Despite the overall bearish sentiment in the market, these two tokens have not experienced a single day of net outflow to date. This zero outflow record is extremely rare in the history of cryptocurrency ETFs, where newly launched ETFs typically undergo fluctuations in capital in and out during the initial phase. The stability of the Solana ETF indicates that institutional investors have high confidence in holding it, viewing it as a long-term allocation rather than a short-term trading tool.

Currently, the total funds raised for Solana-based ETFs have exceeded $2 billion, with issuers competing to meet the growing interest of asset allocators in assets other than Bitcoin. This $2 billion figure has accumulated in a short period, demonstrating the strong demand for Solana ETFs in the market. In contrast, the inflow of funds during the initial launch of Ethereum ETFs was noticeably slower, highlighting Solana's unique position in the eyes of institutional investors.

Solana ETF ecosystem status

VanEck VSOL: Traditional asset management companies enter, bringing institutional-level risk management.

Fidelity FSOL: The first traditional financial giant to launch a Solana product, with a large customer base.

21Shares TSOL: The largest crypto ETP issuer in Europe, with a global distribution network.

Canary Capital SOLC: The staking feature provides investors with an additional source of income.

Bitwise BSOL & Grayscale GSOL: Zero outflow records indicate holder confidence.

However, Kanny Lee, CEO of secondSwap, warned in an interview with Decrypt that these massive fund flows could be misleading, attributing it to the novelty of the staking yield narrative. He believes that if the ETF can maintain a stable investor base after the initial hype wears off, the “real signal” will emerge early next year, which is a key test of true long-term holding intent.

Can Bitcoin ETF 10x Path Solana be replicated?

Considering that Bitcoin ETF will push BTC prices to historical highs in early 2024, Solana may experience a similar situation in 2026 and gradually be accepted by the mainstream market. The success of Bitcoin ETF provides a clear roadmap: from launch to breaking historical price points, Bitcoin experienced about 10 months, during which the price rose from around $40,000 to over $100,000, achieving a pump of about 2.5 times.

However, the 10x target in the SOL price prediction is not a simple replication of Bitcoin's path. Solana's market capitalization base is smaller, its circulating supply is different, and its technical characteristics (such as high throughput and low transaction fees) give it an advantage in certain application scenarios. These factors may lead to greater price elasticity for Solana, allowing its price increase to potentially exceed that of Bitcoin under the same scale of fund inflow.

From the perspective of capital scale comparison, the Bitcoin ETF attracted over 50 billion dollars in inflows during the first few months after its launch. The current 2 billion dollars for the Solana ETF is relatively small, but considering that Solana's market value is about 1/10 of Bitcoin's, this ratio is actually quite considerable. If the Solana ETF can attract 10 billion dollars in inflows within the next year (which is only 1/5 of the Bitcoin ETF), the driving force on the Solana price could be comparable to the impact of the Bitcoin ETF on BTC.

Staking yields are a unique selling point of the Solana ETF. Canary Capital's SOLC offers staking functionality, allowing investors to not only benefit from price appreciation but also earn approximately 6-8% annualized staking yields. This yield structure is extremely rare in the traditional ETF market, providing additional appeal for institutional investors. In contrast, Bitcoin ETFs can only provide price appreciation benefits and do not generate any cash flow.

Technical Analysis: Symmetrical Triangle Breakthrough Imminent

(Source: Trading View)

Solana has the potential to replicate Bitcoin's breakout market driven by the ETF in 2024, with its recent rebound solidifying the lower support level of a symmetrical triangle that has been ongoing for a year. The symmetrical triangle is one of the most reliable continuation patterns in technical analysis and often appears during the consolidation phase of a strong trend. Solana has been consolidating within this pattern since the beginning of 2024, with price highs and lows gradually converging to form a clear triangular structure.

The momentum indicator is approaching bullish territory, and market attention is once again focused on a breakout. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has moved out of the oversold region, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is also nearing a golden cross, both indicating that potential buying pressure is increasing. The RSI has risen from the oversold region to neutral levels, which usually signifies that selling pressure has been fully released and buying interest is starting to enter the market. The MACD fast line crossing above the slow line to form a golden cross is a typical buy signal.

If the momentum continues, Solana may eventually challenge and break through the key breakout area around $205. A breakthrough at this level will open the path to the historical high of $300. $205 is the key resistance level at the upper boundary of the symmetrical triangle and an important pressure zone at the beginning of 2024. Once it breaks through and stabilizes, the next target will naturally be the historical high of $300.

Given the long-term sticky accumulation trend of ETF fund inflows, the continuous upward trend may lead to more aggressive targets. As the bull market matures, the goal of hitting $1500 (a 10-fold increase from the current price) is becoming increasingly feasible. This target is not a figment of the imagination, but is based on the market cap potential of Solana. If it reaches $1500, Solana's market cap will be approximately $650 billion, equivalent to the current market cap of Ethereum. Considering Solana's advantages in technical performance, this valuation is logically justifiable.

Risk Warning: Downward scenarios should not be ignored

However, if the price trend is consistent with the overall market sentiment towards the ETF, then the possibility of a decline still exists. SOL price forecasts must consider both upward and downward scenarios. If Solana is blocked at the resistance level of $205, it could decline by 30%, re-testing the support level near $95. This support level is the lower boundary of the symmetrical triangle and also a historically dense trading area.

The triggering factors for downside risks may include: the inflow of ETF funds not meeting expectations, a deterioration in the macroeconomic environment leading to a decline in risk appetite, technical issues or security incidents on the Solana network, and regulatory agencies taking a stricter stance on cryptocurrency ETFs. Any of these factors could disrupt the current bullish narrative and trigger a price correction.

Kanny Lee's warning is worth noting. If the inflow of funds into the ETF is primarily due to novelty and speculative enthusiasm, rather than genuine long-term allocation demand, then there may be large-scale redemptions after the initial hype subsides. Early 2026 will be a key observation period, at which point it will be possible to assess whether the Solana ETF has truly established a stable investor base.