Ethereum whales quietly accumulate 7.6 million ETH; on-chain data hints at an imminent trend reversal?

According to on-chain data released by CryptoQuant in mid-November 2025, whale addresses holding between 10,000 and 100,000 ETH have accumulated a total of 7.6 million ETH since late April, representing a 52% increase. The total holdings have surged to 22.3 million ETH (approximately $67 billion).

Meanwhile, spot trading volume has repeatedly spiked significantly since early November. Analyst ShayanMarkets notes that this pattern typically appears during the “late compression phase, on the eve of a major rally.” Despite institutional crypto funds experiencing net outflows of $1.17 billion last week, the risk reversal indicator shows waning demand for downside protection. Coupled with the imminent resolution of the U.S. government shutdown, these factors may collectively serve as catalysts for a trend reversal in Ethereum.

Ethereum Whale Accumulation Pattern and On-Chain Signal Analysis

Ethereum whale accumulation from April to November 2025 exhibits clear phased characteristics. The 7.6 million ETH added was primarily acquired within three key price ranges: 2,800–3,000 USD in April–May (290,000 ETH), 3,200–3,400 USD in August–September (220,000 ETH), and 3,000–3,200 USD in October–November (250,000 ETH).

This “buy low” accumulation pattern contrasts sharply with smaller addresses (holding 100–1,000 ETH), which reduced holdings by 16%. This divergence reflects a behavioral split between smart money and retail investors. From an on-chain economic perspective, the 52% increase in whale holdings far exceeds Ethereum’s price performance during the same period (-12%), indicating large holders are strategically accumulating amid market pessimism.

CryptoQuant analyst ShayanMarkets emphasizes the abnormal fluctuations in spot trading volume: “Since ETH dropped below $3,200 in early November, spot volume has experienced four significant peaks. Historically, such patterns often occur during the late compression phase, typically followed by a major rally.” Technical analysis shows volume-price divergence (price sideways with increasing volume) often signals trend reversals. Similar patterns appeared in December 2019 and January 2023, after which ETH surged 85% and 72% within 30 days, respectively.

Macro Environment and Market Sentiment Shift for Ethereum

Ethereum’s on-chain positive signals coincide with a key macro environment improvement. Progress toward resolving the U.S. government shutdown is reshaping global risk asset sentiment. According to the latest QCP Capital report, Bitcoin rebounded strongly from the critical support at $100,000 to $106,000, partly driven by optimism over the shutdown ending, despite ongoing outflows from spot ETF funds and long-term holders (“OGs”).

The report compares current long-term holder selling with past events (such as Silk Road and Mt. Gox asset distributions), noting that “deeper market liquidity has absorbed these supply shocks without breaking the structural momentum.” The risk reversal indicator, which measures the demand for downside protection, has decreased by 40% from its October high, indicating a significant easing of market fear.

However, institutional fund flow data presents a contrasting view: last week, crypto investment products experienced net outflows of $1.17 billion for the second consecutive week, with $1.22 billion leaving the U.S. market, while Germany and Switzerland saw inflows of $41.3 million and $49.7 million, respectively. This divergence suggests that, despite on-chain and derivatives signals turning positive, traditional institutional investors remain cautious, possibly awaiting clearer regulatory guidance or macroeconomic stability.

Key On-Chain and Market Data for Ethereum

• Whale accumulation: 7.6 million ETH (+52% since April)
• Total whale holdings: 22.3 million ETH (~$67 billion)
• Small address reduction: -16% (100–1,000 ETH group)
• Spot trading volume: multiple peaks since early November
• Institutional fund flows: -$1.17 billion last week (net outflow)
• Risk reversal: 40% decrease in downside protection demand
• Key resistance level: $118,000 (Bitcoin OG selling pressure zone)

Ethereum Technical Structure and Price Target Analysis

Ethereum’s daily chart shows a potential bottoming pattern forming, with key resistance and support levels providing clear guidance for short-term direction. Currently trading below the 50-day moving average ($3,350) and the 200-day moving average ($3,550), the gap between these averages has narrowed from 15% in October to 8%, indicating weakening downward momentum.

On the weekly chart, the $3,000–$3,200 zone has established a strong support band, aligning with the high point before the June 2024 breakout and the Fibonacci 38.2% retracement from the 2025 high of $4,200. The critical breakout level is around $3,500—successfully reclaiming this level could activate a head-and-shoulders bottom pattern, with a measured target of $4,000–$4,200.

A more optimistic scenario requires Bitcoin to break through the $118,000 resistance, an area with significant long-term holder sell orders. Clearing this hurdle could trigger a full altcoin season. Conversely, macro deterioration or accelerated institutional outflows pose downside risks—breaking below $3,000 could trigger stop-losses and push prices toward the $2,800–$2,600 support zone.

Ethereum Investment Strategies and Risk Management

Based on on-chain data and technical analysis, Ethereum investors can consider two differentiated strategies to navigate potential trend reversals. For risk-tolerant traders, current levels ($3,200–$3,300) offer strategic entry points, with stop-losses below $2,950, initial targets at $3,800, and a breakout above $4,200. Position sizing should follow a “pyramid” approach, with initial exposure no more than 3% of capital, adding 2% upon breaking $3,500.

Conservative investors should wait for clearer confirmation signals: (1) Ethereum closing above $3,500 for three consecutive days, and (2) weekly trading volume averaging at least 50% higher than current levels.

Regarding tools, spot purchases are suitable for long-term holding, while options can provide limited-risk participation—e.g., buying March 2026 call options with strike prices of $3,800–$4,000, with maximum risk limited to the premium.

Risks to watch include: persistent institutional outflows potentially suppressing rebounds; Bitcoin dominance rising, drawing capital from altcoins; and delays in resolving the U.S. government shutdown weakening risk assets. It is advisable to limit ETH exposure to 15–20% of the portfolio and consider holding some Bitcoin as a hedge.

Conclusion

The accumulation of 7.6 million ETH by whales and the surge in spot trading volume together lay a potential on-chain foundation for a trend reversal. Improved macro sentiment and renewed risk appetite provide external catalysts. Despite cautious institutional fund flow data, historical patterns suggest smart money’s early accumulation often precedes price discovery. Investors should monitor the $3,500 breakout level—success could lead to a rebound toward $4,000–$4,200—but strict risk management is essential to guard against macro surprises and liquidity shocks.