Aster's buyback rate soars 50% to $7,500 per minute. Can the bulls hold the critical $1 support?

In early November 2025, Aster (ASTER) surged 11.36% within 24 hours to $1.11, reaching a local high of $1.16, with trading volume skyrocketing 90% to $667 million. The price rebound was primarily driven by the project increasing its buyback rate from $5,000 per minute to $7,500 per minute, a 50% increase, equivalent to a daily buyback budget of $10 million.

To date, the Aster team has spent $39 million on repurchasing 37.7 million tokens, with approximately 50% (18.85 million tokens) burned, effectively tightening circulating supply. On-chain data shows a spot net outflow of $8.04 million, while perpetual contract trading volume soared to $11 billion, with long positions accounting for 79.28%, indicating market expectations of further upside. However, maintaining the $1.00 support level is crucial to sustain the bullish structure.

Aster Buyback Mechanism and Deflation Economics

In early November, the Aster team increased the token buyback rate from $5,000 to $7,500 per minute—a 50% boost that significantly enhanced buying pressure and triggered deflationary expectations. According to the project mechanism, buyback funds come from a portion of protocol revenue, mainly used to purchase ASTER tokens from the open market, with about 50% of the tokens permanently burned, and the remaining allocated to the project’s treasury for ecosystem development.

This design creates dual price support: on one hand, continuous buybacks reduce circulating supply (with 18.85 million tokens burned, about 4.2% of initial circulating supply), increasing scarcity; on the other hand, the burn mechanism acts as an implicit dividend for all holders, as their ownership stake passively increases as total supply decreases.

From a financial perspective, a buyback rate of $7,500 per minute equates to approximately $108 million daily or about $3.24 billion monthly in buying pressure. For a token with a current market cap of $1.23 billion, this scale is sufficient to offset moderate selling pressure. If maintained, it could reduce circulating supply by 12-15% annually, creating a significant deflationary effect.

Market Response and Capital Flow Analysis

The increased buyback rate immediately triggered chain reactions across market data. In the spot market, ASTER’s net outflow has remained negative for three consecutive days, recently reaching -$8.04 million, indicating tokens are being withdrawn from exchanges into private wallets for long-term holding.

Specifically, exchange outflows totaled $129.28 million, while inflows were $121.24 million, suggesting investors prefer to transfer tokens to private wallets. The derivatives market remains active, with perpetual trading volume reaching $11 billion and over 4.7 million trades, indicating substantial leverage activity.

Most notably, the long-short ratio rose to 3.83, with 79.28% of positions being long, reflecting widespread market optimism for further gains. Historically, when spot accumulation coincides with bullish futures sentiment, it often signals a short-term upward trend but also raises the risk of leveraged liquidations—if the price unexpectedly falls below $1.00, it could trigger approximately $40 million in long liquidations.

Aster Buyback and Market Data Overview

Buyback rate: $7,500/minute (up 50%)

Total buyback: $39 million (37.7 million ASTER)

Tokens burned: 18.85 million (~50%)

Spot net outflow: -$8.04 million

Perpetual trading volume: $11 billion

Long/short ratio: 3.83 (79.28% long)

Key levels: support at $1.00, resistance at $1.17/$1.23

Technical Structure and Price Target Analysis

Aster’s technical chart shows typical rebound and recovery features. On the daily chart, after hitting a low of $0.86, the price formed higher lows and then broke through the psychological $1.00 level, testing resistance at $1.16. The Stochastic Momentum Index has risen to 18, indicating increasing buying momentum, though it remains below the overbought threshold of 20, leaving room for further upside.

Key resistance is at $1.17, coinciding with the Parabolic SAR resistance point. A successful break above this level could target the next resistance at $1.23 (previous high). Maintaining the price above $1.00 support is critical for preserving the short-term bullish outlook, as this level aligns with the 20-day moving average and holds significant technical importance.

If the price falls below $1.00, it could test the $0.92–$0.95 support zone. However, given the ongoing buyback mechanism providing consistent buy pressure, substantial declines are less likely.

Competitive Environment and Valuation

Within the broader meme coin and deflationary token space, Aster’s buyback model faces stiff competition. Similar projects like HUH and WSM also employ buyback and burn strategies, but Aster’s distinction lies in its buybacks being funded entirely from protocol-generated revenue (not token issuance), with buyback speed linked to trading volume (current daily volume of $667 million corresponds to a $1.08 million daily buyback).

Valuation-wise, ASTER’s price-to-sales ratio (PS) is approximately 5.3, lower than the average of 7.2 for comparable deflationary tokens, suggesting potential undervaluation. However, investors should be cautious of risks inherent in the buyback model—if protocol revenue declines significantly in a bear market, buyback activity could weaken, reducing price support.

Additionally, the high proportion of long positions (79.28%) indicates a highly optimistic market sentiment, which could lead to sharp corrections if unexpected negative news occurs. It’s advisable to treat ASTER as a high-risk, high-reward component of a diversified portfolio, with position sizes limited to 3-5% of total investments. Consider partial profit-taking if the price breaks above $1.17.

Conclusion

Aster’s 50% increase in buyback rate has successfully energized the market, with its deflationary mechanism and bullish derivatives sentiment reinforcing each other. If the price can hold above $1.00, there is potential to test resistance zones at $1.17–$1.23. However, given the high long exposure and meme coin characteristics, volatility remains high. Investors should set strict stop-loss levels and monitor protocol revenue indicators to assess the sustainability of buyback support.