Can Bitcoin Q4 "turn danger into safety"? Experts interpret year-end trends and key turning points

As macro risks and liquidity tightening continue to pressure market sentiment, Bitcoin (Bitcoin) has deepened its sideways consolidation trend, raising concerns about its year-end performance. Currently, Bitcoin’s price has fallen approximately 20% from its all-time high, requiring at least a 10% rebound to break even for the quarter.

Despite adverse factors such as geopolitical tensions, the risk of a US government shutdown, and reduced liquidity, several experts remain cautiously optimistic about a positive close in Q4. They believe that inflation data, potential rate cut expectations, and steady ETF fund inflows will be key drivers determining whether Bitcoin can successfully “turn red.”

Bitcoin Faces Consolidation Challenges: Year-End Rally Faces Obstacles

After a round of selling, Bitcoin’s price has remained in a horizontal range, with market participants fiercely debating whether it can overcome multiple resistances to end the year strongly. According to data from CoinGecko, Bitcoin has retreated about 20% from its historical high of $126,080. A historic crash in October triggered $19 billion in liquidations, further worsening Bitcoin’s performance.

Entering November, “safe-haven” sentiment has continued to ferment, with Bitcoin declining about 15% over the past month. Meanwhile, traditional stock markets have also been affected, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq index dropping approximately 3.4% over the past seven days.

To break even in Q4, Bitcoin’s price needs to rebound at least 10%, reaching the quarterly breakeven point of $114,000. Only by surpassing this critical level can Bitcoin close in the “green,” bringing a satisfying end to the year.

Macroeconomic and Geopolitical Risks Are Key Resistance Factors

Industry experts generally believe that the current range-bound trading and liquidity contraction of Bitcoin are mainly due to macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties.

Daniel Liu, CEO of Republic Technologies, emphasized: “The impact of the US-China trade war on risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, may exceed expectations.” He added that the risk of a US government shutdown also heightens market hesitation and wait-and-see sentiment. This cautious attitude is directly reflected in market behavior and declining liquidity.

Adam Chu, Chief Researcher at GreeksLive, pointed out that, based on crypto options data, neither bulls nor bears currently hold a clear advantage, and the market generally expects continued range-bound trading.

Additionally, Chu warned of potential systemic risks, mentioning that “unknown institutional defaults could occur at any time,” and that “recent defaults in DeFi and stablecoins may signal the prelude to a crisis.” This perspective reminds investors that, while pursuing a year-end rebound, they must remain vigilant against potential “black swan” events.

Turning the Tide: Inflation, Rate Cuts, and ETF Fund Flows

Despite the challenges, experts remain confident that Bitcoin could achieve a positive finish by year-end, contingent on favorable macroeconomic shifts.

Ryan Lee, Chief Analyst at Bitget, stated: “If inflation data remains controlled and market liquidity improves, Bitcoin could indeed close the fourth quarter positively.”

He further pointed out that key drivers include potential Fed rate cuts and a weakening US dollar, which could boost risk appetite. Meanwhile, Lee believes that continued accumulation by long-term holders and increased ETF fund inflows are positive signals of market confidence recovery. Especially, steady institutional inflows via ETFs indicate growing acceptance of Bitcoin in mainstream finance, providing a long-term support foundation for prices.

Conclusion

Bitcoin’s trajectory in Q4 will be a contest between macroeconomic conditions and intrinsic market momentum. While multiple macro risks currently limit its upside potential, expectations of rate cuts and ongoing institutional inflows keep hope alive for a positive year-end close. For investors, close attention should be paid to US inflation data, Federal Reserve policy signals, and Bitcoin spot ETF fund flows. The current consolidation phase may be laying the groundwork for the next breakout, but high-risk alerts remain in place.