Google Finance AI upgrade! Integrates Kalshi and Polymarket prediction markets to revolutionize the search ecosystem

As part of its AI upgrade, Google is integrating prediction market data from Kalshi and Polymarket into its search results, allowing users to view real-time probabilities of future market events directly within the platform. According to an announcement released on Thursday, this prediction market data will be rolled out over the coming weeks, enabling users to input questions directly into Google Search to see market odds and track how predictions change over time.

Strategic Significance of Google Finance Integrating Kalshi and Polymarket

(Source: Google)

Founded in 2020, Polymarket is a decentralized prediction platform built on the Polygon blockchain, where users can trade on real-world events. Kalshi, established in 2018, is a regulated exchange overseen by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), offering event contracts within the traditional financial system. Both platforms allow users to bet on a wide range of events—from sports and political outcomes to more unconventional questions like “Will Trump declassify UFO files before 2027?” or “Will rent in New York City be frozen next year?”

Google Finance’s choice to integrate these two platforms is no coincidence. Kalshi and Polymarket represent two different models of prediction markets: Kalshi is a regulated centralized exchange with strong compliance but less flexibility; Polymarket is a decentralized platform known for innovation but with ambiguous regulatory status. By integrating both, Google Finance can cater to institutional users seeking regulatory compliance while also appealing to crypto-native users who prefer decentralized platforms.

This integration offers multiple strategic benefits for Google Finance. First, prediction market data enriches its content ecosystem. Traditional financial data mainly covers prices of stocks, bonds, commodities, etc., but prediction markets span politics, sports, entertainment, technology, and more—drawing in a broader audience beyond conventional finance.

Second, prediction markets are highly timely and topical. When major events occur, market probabilities update in real time, providing dynamic content that can attract users to revisit Google Finance repeatedly, increasing engagement and dwell time. For example, during U.S. presidential elections, predictions from Polymarket and Kalshi become global focal points; integrating this data can significantly boost traffic.

Third, prediction market data opens new avenues for Google’s AI capabilities. Google AI models can analyze historical prediction data to identify trends and patterns, offering users deeper insights. For instance, if someone searches “Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by 2025?”, Google AI can display current probabilities from Kalshi and Polymarket, analyze their historical shifts, and supplement with relevant news and analysis.

AI-Driven Deep Search Enhancing User Experience

This feature is part of Google Finance’s AI upgrade. Google Finance is a free online service providing real-time financial market data. The upgrade introduces a deep search function powered by Google AI models, along with a new real-time earnings feature.

The AI-driven deep search will revolutionize how users interact with Google Finance. Traditionally, users needed to input precise stock tickers or company names and sift through structured tables for answers. Now, with natural language understanding, users can ask questions like “Which tech stocks have performed best over the past month?” or “How do Tesla’s earnings forecasts impact its stock price?” Google AI interprets the intent, consolidates data from multiple sources, and presents answers in an accessible manner.

This natural language querying synergizes with the integration of prediction market data. For example, a user might ask, “Does the market think the Fed will cut interest rates at the next meeting?” Google AI can fetch relevant probabilities from Kalshi and Polymarket, combine them with the latest economic data and news, and deliver a comprehensive response. This multi-dimensional information delivery is difficult for traditional financial platforms to match.

The real-time earnings feature is another key upgrade. During earnings seasons, timely updates on quarterly results are crucial for investors. This feature automatically updates data immediately after earnings releases and uses Google AI to generate summaries and key metric analyses. It enables Google Finance to compete with professional terminals like Bloomberg, offering retail users near-institutional levels of timely information.

Prediction Markets Leading Industry Trends: Robinhood and MetaMask Pioneering the Space

(Source: X)

Google isn’t the only company integrating prediction markets into its platform. In March 2025, Robinhood launched a prediction market hub within its app, partnering with KalshiEX LLC to offer services in the U.S. According to Bloomberg on September 30, Robinhood is also in talks with the UK’s Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) to explore launching similar products in the UK.

Robinhood’s move is highly illustrative. As one of the largest retail brokerages in the U.S. with tens of millions of users, Robinhood bringing prediction markets into a mainstream investment app signals a shift—prediction markets are moving from niche tools to mainstream financial products. Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev has described prediction markets as a “natural extension of financial democratization,” enabling ordinary people to participate in investment opportunities beyond traditional markets.

In October, MetaMask announced plans to integrate Polymarket. Gal Eldar, the global product lead, stated this aligns with MetaMask’s goal of expanding from a crypto wallet to a “democratized finance portal.” With over 30 million monthly active users, MetaMask’s integration allows users to access prediction markets directly within their wallets, without switching apps or browser extensions.

In the same month, Sam Altman’s World project announced the integration of Polymarket into its digital wallet and identity platform, World App, providing access to on-chain prediction markets for users in supported regions. Known for its biometric identity verification system, World ID, the platform’s integration with Polymarket makes it the first to combine decentralized identity with prediction markets.

Key Platforms’ Prediction Market Integration Timeline

• March 2025: Robinhood launches prediction market hub, partnering with Kalshi
• October 2025: MetaMask announces integration with Polymarket
• October 2025: World App integrates Polymarket, combining decentralized identity
• November 2025: Google Finance announces integration of Kalshi and Polymarket data

Regulatory Challenges and Compliance Pathways for Prediction Markets

While prediction market integration is trending industry-wide, regulatory issues remain a major hurdle. Kalshi, as a CFTC-regulated exchange, has a clearer compliance path, but this also limits the types of markets it can offer. For example, Kalshi cannot currently offer contracts on election outcomes (though some restrictions were eased in 2024) or on markets that could be considered gambling.

Polymarket, as a decentralized platform, faces greater regulatory risks. In 2022, Polymarket settled with the CFTC after being accused of operating as an unregistered designated contract market, paying a $1.4 million fine and agreeing to cease offering services to U.S. users. Despite this, due to blockchain’s decentralized nature, U.S. users can still access Polymarket via VPNs and other means.

Google Finance’s integration of both platforms’ data requires balancing innovation with regulatory compliance. As one of the world’s largest tech companies, Google has extensive experience navigating regulation. It’s likely that Google Finance will include appropriate risk disclosures and disclaimers when displaying prediction market data, and may restrict certain content based on user location.

Another regulatory challenge is market manipulation. Due to typically lower liquidity compared to traditional markets, large traders could influence probabilities by placing significant bets, potentially skewing public perception. Both Kalshi and Polymarket have implemented anti-manipulation measures, but this remains an ongoing concern. Google Finance may need to clarify to users that these probabilities are derived from market activity and not guaranteed forecasts.