Polymarket New York City mayoral election futures volume exceeds $400 million! Individual maximum loss is nearly one million dollars

After the results of the New York City mayoral election were announced, one of the largest individual losses in the history of decentralized prediction markets Polymarket occurred: user “fuxfux007” lost $969,000 on a trade betting against Zohran Mamdani’s victory. The total trading volume of this election contract reached $424 million, demonstrating the significant influence of prediction markets on political events. However, the event also sparked controversy over market manipulation and fairness, posing new challenges to trust in crypto prediction platforms.

Nearly Million-Dollar Loss: Mamdani’s Victory Leaves Traders Bankrupt

According to on-chain data from Polymarket Analytics, trader “fuxfux007” made two major bets on the New York City mayoral contract:

• A bet against Zohran Mamdani’s victory of approximately $974,000;
• A small support bet for Mamdani of about $43,000.

After Mamdani defeated Andrew Cuomo and won the election, this trader’s net loss reached $969,169, setting one of the largest single-loss records in Polymarket’s prediction marketplace.

Meanwhile, another trader named “debased” earned $188,487 by betting on Mamdani’s victory, becoming the biggest winner of this round.

Record Trading Volume: NYC Mayoral Election Sparks $424 Million in Bets

The total trading volume for the New York City mayoral contract hit $424 million, breaking Polymarket’s historical record. The platform allows users to place bets on political events via on-chain smart contracts, with market prices often viewed as real-time indicators of public opinion.

Although Mamdani maintained a lead throughout the campaign, market prices fluctuated sharply multiple times, creating arbitrage opportunities and causing some users to suffer significant losses.

This high volatility makes Polymarket a key case at the intersection of political finance and crypto speculation.

Manipulation Concerns: Bill Ackman Warns of Market Interference

Hedge fund manager Bill Ackman publicly questioned the authenticity of Polymarket’s data after the election results, suggesting the presence of “malicious orders” artificially inflating Mamdani’s win probability. He pointed out that some large trades might be aimed at manipulation, misleading market sentiment.

Similar controversies had previously arisen during the 2024 US Presidential Election betting markets, when some traders were accused of falsifying liquidity to artificially boost certain candidates’ chances.

However, many prediction market experts believe such manipulation is often short-lived. As professional arbitrage funds enter, market prices tend to quickly revert to rational levels, reflecting true probabilities. This “self-correcting mechanism” is one of the core features of decentralized prediction markets.

Polymarket’s Accuracy and Market Signals

Despite ongoing controversy, Polymarket accurately predicted Mamdani’s victory in this election. Some traders likened betting on Mamdani to a form of “low-risk bond,” believing that buying in the days before the election could yield 5% steady returns with almost no risk.

As the vote results were announced, the contract price movements on Polymarket closely aligned with polling data, reaffirming the reliability of decentralized prediction markets in reflecting societal expectations. However, this “market-based polling” mechanism also exposes potential risks of liquidity manipulation and insider trading.

High Risk and High Reward: The Double-Edged Sword of Prediction Markets

Polymarket’s rapid growth has made it an important platform for political event speculation worldwide. Users can bet on election, policy, or event outcomes using USDC Stablecoin, with instant settlement and transparent data tracking. But as demonstrated by “fuxfux007,” high leverage bets entail extremely high risks—if the prediction is wrong, losses can be severe.

For some traders, prediction markets are both an opportunity and a lesson:

• Prediction markets are not financial investments but probabilistic games;
• Information advantage and liquidity depth still determine outcomes;
• Transparent contracts and decentralized settlement mechanisms are key to preventing manipulation in the future.

Conclusion

The million-dollar loss case on Polymarket’s NYC mayoral contract serves as a warning for prediction markets. It reveals the risks behind the financialization of political events while also showcasing the potential of blockchain prediction markets to reflect social consensus. As institutional investors and retail traders participate more actively, transparency, liquidity, and regulation compliance will become central issues for the long-term healthy development of Polymarket and other prediction platforms.