Analysts tell XRP holders: Fibonacci extensions indicate a final target of 27 USD.

Market analyst ChartNerd shared the XRP Fibonacci extension model, identifying three key pump targets: the 1.272 extension corresponds to 8 USD, the 1.414 target corresponds to 13 USD, and the 1.618 extension points to 27 USD. XRP is currently around 2.50 USD, with a daily volume maintained above 2 billion USD, and the RSI indicator is near 45 in the neutral zone.

ChartNerd Fibonacci Extension Analysis Framework

(Source: Trading View)

The Fibonacci extension model from ChartNerd provides a rigorous technical analysis framework that divides the future trend of XRP into three key stages. These price levels represent the estimated path of steadily expanding XRP's long-term accumulation base. Each target level reflects a natural area for momentum continuation, and the Fibonacci model serves as a reliable tool in technical analysis to help identify key positions for trend continuation or reversal.

The first target level is 8 USD, corresponding to the 1.272 Fibonacci extension. This level represents a pump of approximately 220% from the current price and is a key confirmation area for the breakout. If XRP successfully breaks through and holds above 8 USD, it will mark the official start of a new bull market cycle. Historically, XRP reached a historical high of 3.84 USD in early 2018, and 8 USD will be a doubling breakthrough of that record.

The second target is $13, corresponding to the 1.414 Fibonacci extension. This level represents a pump of about 420% from the current price and is a mid-term milestone for a comprehensive expansion of momentum. Achieving $13 requires strong fundamental support, including significant growth in institutional adoption, a thriving XRPL ecosystem, and alignment with the macro liquidity environment. This price level would bring XRP's market capitalization to about $700 billion (assuming the circulating supply remains relatively stable), close to Ethereum's market capitalization at the peak of the bull market in 2021.

The third target level is $27 corresponding to the 1.618 Fibonacci extension. This level represents an approximately 980% increase from the current price, nearing a 10x growth, which is the ultimate target indicated by the Fibonacci golden ratio. Achieving $27 requires XRP to truly become the mainstream bridge asset for global cross-border payments and gain widespread adoption by central banks and large financial institutions. This price level would elevate XRP's market capitalization to about $1.5 trillion, surpassing the current market cap of Bitcoin.

ChartNerd Fibonacci Extension Three Major Targets

8 USD (1.272 extension): Up 220% from $2.50, breaking through the confirmation area.

$13 (1.414 extension): up 420% from $2.50, mid-term milestone

27 USD (1.618 extension): An increase of 980% from $2.50, ultimate target

ChartNerd's settings combine years of volatility data and consistent structure, indicating that XRP may be completing a long re-accumulation phase. From the high in November 2021 to the low in 2023, XRP has experienced deep adjustments and long-term consolidation, a pattern that is often seen in technical analysis as energy accumulation before the next major pump.

Current Market Structure and Technical Indicator Interpretation

As of the time of writing, the XRP price is fluctuating around $2.50. The daily volume remains above $2 billion, indicating that despite lower market volatility, investor interest remains strong. This stable volume is a sign of a healthy market structure, suggesting that XRP is establishing a solid support base rather than experiencing a volume-less decline or a bubble-like surge.

The RSI indicator is close to 45, in the neutral zone, indicating that XRP may have room for a pump. The RSI is a momentum indicator that measures the speed and magnitude of price movements, with a value range between 0 and 100. When the RSI is below 30, it is considered oversold, while above 70 it is considered overbought. The current reading of 45 shows that XRP is neither overbought nor oversold, leaving ample technical space for a potential upward movement.

If XRP breaks through the local resistance level, it may form a larger pump wave. According to Fibonacci analysis, the $8 level could become a key confirmation area for the breakout. If the asset price continues to strengthen, it may rise to $13; if momentum expands comprehensively, it may test $27 in the long term.

From the price action perspective, XRP is currently forming a consolidation pattern similar to a symmetrical triangle or ascending triangle. This pattern typically appears in the trend continuation phase, indicating that a breakout will extend the previous trend direction. If XRP can break out with volume above the upper boundary of the triangle, it will confirm the beginning of a new upward trend.

Ripple ecosystem catalyst strengthens bullish pattern on the technical front

Ripple's ecosystem development aligns closely with ChartNerd's bullish technical structure. The company launched the institutional stablecoin RLUSD in December 2024, aimed at enhancing the liquidity of the XRP ledger. As a regulated stablecoin, RLUSD provides institutions with compliant tools for trading and settlement on the XRPL. The launch of the stablecoin will significantly increase the volume and activity of the XRPL, as it provides critical infrastructure for DeFi protocols and payment applications.

Ripple's acquisition of custody and payment infrastructure companies has strengthened its institutional client access strategy. Through vertical integration of custody services, Ripple can provide end-to-end solutions for banks and payment institutions, covering everything from liquidity provision to asset custody. This strategic layout lowers the threshold for institutions to adopt XRP, as they no longer need to interface with multiple service providers.

In addition, the XRPL EVM sidechain supports Ethereum-compatible smart contracts, opening up new opportunities for DeFi and liquidity. EVM compatibility means that DeFi protocols on Ethereum can easily migrate or expand to XRPL, leveraging its low costs and fast confirmation advantages. This will bring new use cases and demand for XRP, expanding from a simple payment tool to DeFi collateral, liquidity pools, and smart contract fuel.

These developments support the long-term trading demand for XRP and solidify its status as a cross-border bridge asset. When the technical aspect shows breakout signals, the fundamentals provide the ongoing upward momentum, and this combination is the strongest bullish setup.

On-chain Data and Investor Sentiment Analysis

On-chain data shows that over the past twelve months, large holders have been continuously increasing their holdings. Whale wallets continue to accumulate, indicating their confidence in the long-term value of the asset. Whale behavior serves as an important leading indicator in the crypto market, as these large investors often possess deeper market insights and more professional analytical capabilities. When whales continue to accumulate at relatively low price levels, it often signals an upcoming bullish trend.

However, the number of daily active addresses fluctuates significantly, indicating unstable network usage. The continued growth of network activity will provide fundamental validation for reaching higher Fibonacci targets. The number of active addresses is an important indicator of the actual use of the blockchain; if this indicator can stabilize and break historical highs, it will demonstrate that the actual demand for XRP is expanding, rather than just speculative trading.

From the perspective of volume distribution, transactions on the XRPL are mainly concentrated in the payment and cross-border transfer sectors, which aligns with XRP's positioning as a bridge asset. With the launch of RLUSD and the activation of the EVM sidechain, on-chain activities related to DeFi are expected to increase significantly, providing new momentum for the growth of active address numbers.

Risk Considerations and Cautious Expectations

Despite the promising outlook, risks remain significant. Any sharp decline in global liquidity could weaken market momentum before final confirmation. The crypto market is highly correlated with the macro liquidity environment; if the Federal Reserve tightens monetary policy, global central banks reduce their balance sheets, or systemic risks emerge in financial markets, the pump path for XRP may be interrupted.

Regulatory pressure or a decrease in institutional fund inflows may also delay bullish forecasts. Despite the favorable outcome of the Ripple vs. SEC lawsuit, the global regulatory environment is still evolving. If major markets (such as the United States or the European Union) implement restrictive cryptocurrency regulations, the adoption of XRP by institutions may slow down.

If XRP cannot hold the key support level, the technical structure may lose credibility. ChartNerd's Fibonacci analysis is based on the current accumulation structure, and if XRP breaks below the key support level of 2 dollars, the entire bullish narrative will need to be reassessed.