Pi Network Price Prediction: PI big dump after significant update, could it drop below 0.20 dollars?

Despite developers announcing significant updates to App Studio, the price of Pi Network has still fallen to a historical low, raising doubts about whether the project can create actual value. Tokenomics is the focus of criticism, as the large supply is distributed for free through mobile mining, resulting in substantial selling pressure. Pi Network does not yet have a solid ecosystem or sufficient liquidity to attract professional investors.

Why the Major Update of App Studio Triggered the Largest Dumping in History

(Source: Trading View)

The developers of Pi Network have just deployed an important App Studio update aimed at revitalizing the ecosystem and attracting more third-party developers. The goal is to enhance the practical utility of the PI Token through decentralized applications, injecting vitality into the ecosystem. However, market reaction has been poor, causing the PI price to fall to a historic low, and this counterintuitive response reveals a fundamental issue.

In the traditional logic of the cryptocurrency market, significant technological updates usually trigger price increases, as they represent project progress and future potential. However, in the case of Pi Network, the situation is quite the opposite; the update announcements have instead become a trigger for dumping. The reason behind this anomaly is that investors have lost confidence in the project's ability to deliver on its promises.

Despite millions of users mining for years, the network still struggles to demonstrate real economic applications. Since its launch in 2019, Pi Network has claimed to establish a cryptocurrency ecosystem driven by ordinary people, allowing users to easily earn tokens through mobile Mining. However, after nearly 4 years of waiting, the full launch of the mainnet and the actual application scenarios remain a distant reality.

Although the App Studio update provides powerful tools on a technical level, experienced blockchain talent still prefers mature ecosystems. Developers consider multiple factors when choosing a platform: user base, capital liquidity, completeness of technical documentation, community support, and commercialization prospects. In these dimensions, Pi Network still has a significant gap compared to Ethereum, Solana, or BNB Chain.

Tokenomics Collapse: The Fatal Flaw of Supply Imbalance

The most critical negative factor in the price prediction of Pi Network is its tokenomics design. The tokenomics of Pi Network has become the focal point of criticism due to its large supply and the fact that it is distributed for free through mobile mining, resulting in significant selling pressure. Exchanges have observed a severe imbalance: the huge supply contrasts sharply with the almost non-existent institutional demand.

According to public data, Pi Network already has tens of millions of registered users. Even if only a small portion of users successfully extract and sell their tokens, it will create huge selling pressure on the market. What's worse, due to the extremely low threshold for mining (only requiring a daily click on the mobile app), a large number of users view PI tokens as assets obtained “for free,” with almost zero holding costs, which means that any price could trigger a dumping.

Unlike Bitcoin or Ethereum, mining for Pi Network does not require the consumption of electricity or computational resources, which means that the tokens have no “production cost” to support the price floor. In traditional cryptocurrencies, miners will reduce their selling when the price falls below the mining cost, as continuing to sell would mean a loss. However, for Pi Network users, any price at which they sell is pure profit, and this zero-cost structure naturally leads to extremely low price support.

Exchange data shows that the buy-sell orders of the PI Token are severely unbalanced. The number of sell orders far exceeds the buy orders, and the buy order depth is extremely shallow, allowing large-scale dumping to easily penetrate multiple price levels. Institutional investors show almost no interest in Pi Network due to the lack of a clear value proposition, verifiable on-chain activity, and a compliant token distribution mechanism.

Lack of Practical Use Cases: The Gap with Mature Ecosystems

The biggest obstacle to Pi Network's price prediction is the lack of concrete use cases and reliable on-chain activities, which hinders any sustainable recovery. Unlike Ethereum or Solana, Pi Network does not yet have a solid ecosystem or sufficient liquidity to attract professional investors.

Ethereum has thousands of decentralized applications (dApps) covering multiple fields such as DeFi, NFTs, gaming, and authentication, with daily on-chain transaction volumes reaching millions and a total locked value (TVL) exceeding $50 billion. Solana is known for its high performance, capable of processing tens of thousands of transactions per second, and has become the preferred platform for meme coins, payments, and high-frequency trading. In contrast, the on-chain activities of Pi Network are almost negligible.

The Gap Between Pi Network and Mature Ecosystems:

Number of Developers: Ethereum has over 200,000 active developers, while the number of Pi Network developers is unknown and their quality is concerning.

Number and Quality of dApps: Ethereum has top applications like Uniswap, Aave, and OpenSea, while Pi Network lacks well-known projects.

Daily Trading Volume: Ethereum averages millions of transactions per day, Solana tens of millions, and Pi Network data is not publicly available and may be very low.

Institutional Adoption: Ethereum is adopted by institutions such as BlackRock and Fidelity, while Pi Network has almost zero institutional participation.

The more fundamental question is that Pi Network has yet to answer a core question: What is the actual use of the PI Token? If it is merely used as a payment tool, existing stablecoins and Bitcoin are already sufficient. If it is used as fuel for a smart contract platform, then in the competition with Ethereum and Solana, Pi Network has neither a technological advantage nor an ecological advantage. If it is to serve as a store of value, then the PI Token, lacking scarcity and consensus, clearly does not possess this attribute.

Trust crisis that cannot be compensated by technological advances

App Studio provides developers with powerful tools, but market sentiment remains sluggish, and technical indicators confirm a long-term downtrend with no obvious reversal signals. This situation reflects a fact about the cryptocurrency market: when the economic fundamentals lack stability, development announcements are no longer sufficient to support prices.

The trust crisis faced by Pi Network stems from multiple levels. First, there is the issue of project transparency; the mainnet launch has been repeatedly delayed, the token distribution mechanism lacks clear explanation, and the team's background and fund usage are not transparent enough. Second, there is the issue of fulfilling promises; the project team has repeatedly claimed that significant features are about to be launched, but the actual implementation time is far later than expected, and the results are greatly diminished. Third, there is the issue of community management; a large number of users report being unable to withdraw tokens, or the withdrawal process is extremely complicated, which has exacerbated the community's dissatisfaction.

From a technical indicator perspective, the price prediction for Pi Network is extremely pessimistic. A long-term downtrend has already formed, with each rebound facing strong selling pressure, creating a clear descending channel. Trading volume continues to shrink, indicating that market participants are gradually exiting. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has been in the oversold zone for a long time but has failed to form an effective rebound, suggesting that even though prices are very low, there is still a lack of buying support.

Three Major Risks of Pi Network Price Prediction:

Continuous selling pressure: Tens of millions of unlocked tokens may flood the market at any time.

Regulatory Uncertainty: The compliance of the project and the nature of the token remain in question.

Competitive Pressure: The technological advancements and ecological expansion of mature public chains will further squeeze the survival space of Pi Network.

Only a truly adopted proof can restore confidence. This means that the Pi Network needs to demonstrate concrete business use cases, real user transaction data, and a sustainable economic model. Otherwise, no matter how frequent the technological updates are, they cannot stop the continuous fall in price.