Will Bitcoin Drop Below $100,000 Soon? 3 Charts Hold the Answer

Following a massive liquidation event that saw Bitcoin's price briefly hit $102,000, many traders fear a drop below the critical $100,000 mark. However, an analysis of three key charts suggests the immediate price outlook favors a rebound, indicating the panic selling may be over.

1. On-Chain Holder Behavior: Veterans Stay Calm

On-chain metrics point to strength and resilience in the holder base, suggesting the recent drop was a shakeout rather than true capitulation: Total Holders: The total number of Bitcoin addresses holding BTC increased during the crash, signifying a wave of dip-buying conviction rather than widespread panic selling.Spent Coins Age Bands (SCAB): This data is crucial, showing that the recent selling was driven by newer or mid-term holders. Critically, long-term holders (veterans)—those holding coins for 180 days to over 2 years—remained inactive. This lack of selling from veteran wallets is a key signal that strong hands do not anticipate a collapse below $100,000.

2. Technical Signal: RSI Flips From Bearish to Bullish

The price action itself suggests a momentum shift is underway, moving from a bearish setup to a potential bullish reversal: Previous Bearish Divergence: The sharp 19.1% correction that triggered the crash was preceded by a bearish divergence on the Relative Strength Index (RSI), where price made higher highs but momentum (RSI) made lower highs, signaling a correction was due.Current Bullish Divergence: The chart now shows a bullish divergence—the price made a lower low while the RSI made a higher low. This indicates that selling pressure is losing strength and momentum is beginning to build for a rebound.

3. Key Price Targets and Outlook

Bitcoin's current position and technical structure suggest a push back toward recent highs is more likely than a drop below six figures: Current Price Action: Bitcoin is consolidating near $111,600, aligning closely with the 0.5 Fibonacci level ($111,400).Rebound Targets: A sustained daily close above the 0.5 Fib level would confirm strength, opening the path for a recovery toward $113,600, $116,800, and $120,800.Conclusion: The analysis suggests the risk of dropping below $100,000 is low in the short term. Only a sustained daily candle close below $101,900 would push the price under the key psychological barrier.

Conclusion

The convergence of on-chain data—showing veteran holders are calm and new investors are accumulating—and a crucial bullish divergence in the RSI momentum indicator strongly suggests that the recent market panic has stabilized. The immediate price path for Bitcoin favors a rebound toward $120,800, making a drop below the $100,000 level unlikely unless the key support at $101,900 fails.

Disclaimer

This content is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. Cryptocurrency trading involves high risks, and you should always conduct your own research (DYOR) and consult with a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.