Citibank warns: In the second half of 2025, "global growth will fall below 2%", a grim situation not seen in over a decade.

Citigroup predicts that global growth will fall below 2% in 2025, directly pointing to tariffs, with market concerns about short-term recession and the impact of supply chain restructuring. (Background: U.S. retail growth in August exceeded expectations; is ahead-of-consumption a sign of a truly strong economy? Experts worry about the risks of a K-shaped recovery.) (Context: Ukraine has passed a bill legalizing "crypto assets" and low tax rates to find economic recovery amid war.) Citigroup's latest report pushes the market into a defensive stance. The bank pointed out that the global economy may grow by less than 2% in the second half of 2025, marking a rare low in over a decade. The most prominent variable behind this warning is not oil prices or financial disorder, but rather President Trump’s significant tariff increases, forcing businesses and consumers to face higher costs. Citigroup has revised its global growth forecast for the second half of 2025 down to below 2%, causing market confidence in a "soft landing" to evaporate quickly. Other institutions may differ, but the direction is consistent: Fitch expects 2.4%, while OECD estimates 3.2%. Although the numbers vary, the conclusion is very consistent: the momentum for global growth is fading. The effective tariff rate in the U.S. has risen to 19.5%, the highest since 1933, directly increasing trade costs and weakening the scale of multinational investments. Tariff impacts: cost spillover and "demand front-loading" The Trump administration will impose tariffs on pharmaceuticals, heavy trucks, and other items in October 2025. In the short term, companies are choosing to absorb some costs, but as time goes on, prices are bound to rise, further squeezing end demand. The European Central Bank's model shows that global import growth has fallen from 4.2% in 2024 to 1.5% in 2026. Companies are preemptively stocking up to avoid future tariffs, leading to "demand front-loading." Once inventory is depleted, imports and production will fall back in sync, sharply reducing growth. Faced with changing policies, multinational corporations are accelerating their "friendshoring" strategies, shifting some production from mainland China and Mexico to regions with more stable political relations. While this can diversify risks, it adds complexity and costs, especially in industries such as pharmaceuticals and automotive parts that have high requirements for timeliness and quality. Investment decisions are forced to be delayed or split, slowing down the capital expenditure cycle and amplifying economic fluctuations. 2026 rebound: glimmers of hope amid geopolitical shadows Citigroup estimates that global growth could rebound to 2.5% in 2026. Supporting factors include a marginal reduction in the impact of tariffs, potential fiscal expansion and short rate reductions from major economies, as well as stabilization of energy prices. However, the report also acknowledges that the recovery strength is weak, with U.S. GDP growth only between 1.5% and 1.9%, far below historical averages. Inflation and conflict risks still hang like the sword of Damocles. Investors must pay attention to trade policy trends and the pace of central banks in handling inflation, and reassess industries benefiting from supply chain reconstruction, such as high-end manufacturing in North America and some green energy components in Europe. Related reports: U.S. Q2 PCE and GDP data shows "economy is strong but inflation remains", October rate cut chances decline, Bitcoin falls near $110,000. Federal Reserve officials criticize Trump for "cutting rates too quickly": high unemployment is not a sign of economic recession, and monetary independence must be restored. The article "Citigroup warns: 'Global growth falls below 2% in the second half of 2025', a grim situation not seen in over a decade" was first published in BlockTempo, the most influential Blockchain news media.