Cardano could surge 30% thanks to ETF expectations and a change in Fed policy.

Cardano (ADA) is showing positive technical signals, opening up the possibility of a bullish increase of nearly 30% due to the synergy between chart trends and macroeconomic factors - policies.

Technical signals support bullish trend

According to analysts, ADA remains above the 100-day exponential moving average (EMA), which often serves as a support zone during previous recoveries.

In addition, according to the Murrey Math Line indicator – used to identify support and resistance areas – ADA is reacting around these important levels.

The current price chart records a bullish flag pattern ( after a strong upward move followed by a short correction – usually leading to a breakout to the upside. In addition, an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern is also forming, which is seen as a reversal signal, reinforcing the long-term outlook.

If confirmed, analysts say ADA could move to around $1.07, about 30% higher than the current level.

Conversely, a drop below $0.68 would invalidate the potential bullish scenario, consistent with the movement of the Murrey Math indicator.

![])https://img-cdn.gateio.im/webp-social/moments-c6dedd85599080122fc198561520f6ee.webp(ADA Price Chart | Source: TradingView## Macroeconomic Factors: The U.S. Job Market Weakens

The macro picture is also supporting expectations. The August non-farm payroll report in the US only recorded an additional 22,000 jobs ) compared to 79,000 in the month 7(, while the unemployment rate increased from 4.2% to 4.3%.

Economists say that weak labor data often drives the U.S. Federal Reserve )Fed( to cut interest rates. Lower interest rates help support riskier assets, including tokens.

Economist Mohamed El-Erian stated that the Fed may cut by 25 basis points in the upcoming meeting, and even the possibility of a reduction of up to 50 basis points cannot be ruled out.

This raises expectations for greater liquidity, supporting the bullish trend of ADA.

Legal Factors: Waiting for ETF Decision

The management context has created another catalyst. The SEC faces a deadline in October to respond to Grayscale's request for a spot ADA ETF.

If approved, this ETF will open the door for institutional capital, allowing investors to access ADA without having to hold the token directly. This could significantly increase demand, similar to what happened with other ETFs approved in 2025.

Although the SEC has approved other spot ETFs in early 2025, the outcome for ADA remains uncertain.

Prospects Ahead

Currently, Cardano is supported by both technical and macro factors. The price holds above the 100-day EMA, the chart shows many bullish patterns, while expectations of interest rate cuts and ETF decisions provide additional momentum.

The possibility of ADA reaching $1.07 or dropping down to near $0.68 will depend on technical confirmations and policy outcomes in the near future.

Vincent